European Central Bank poised to cut rates again as inflation drops below target

The European Central Bank, which sets interest rates for the 20 countries that use the euro currency, is expected to cut borrowing costs once again on Thursday after figures showed inflation across the bloc falling to its lowest level in more than three years and economic growth waning.

The bank’s rate-setting council is expected to lower its benchmark rate from 3.5% to 3.25% at a meeting taking place in Llubljana, Slovenia, rather than its usual Frankfurt, Germany, headquarters. The anticipated cut would be its third since June.

Inflation has been falling by more than anticipated — in September, it was down at 1.8%, the first time it has been below the ECB’s target of 2% in more than three years — and analysts think the bank will lower rates in December, too. Mounting evidence that the eurozone is barely growing — just 0.3% in the second-quarter — has only accentuated the view that ECB President Christine Lagarde will not seek to dislodge that expectation.

“The trends in the real economy and inflation support the case for lower rates,” said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank.

One reason why inflation has fallen around the world is that central banks dramatically increased borrowing costs from near zero during the coronavirus pandemic when prices started to shoot up, first as a result of supply chain issues built up and then because of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine which pushed up energy costs.

The ECB, which was created in 1999 when the euro currency was born, started raising interest rates in the summer of 2021, taking them up to a r ecord high of 4% in Sept. 2023 to get a grip on inflation by making it more expensive for businesses and consumers to borrow, but that has come at a cost by weighing on growth.