Chronic teacher shortage makes Rishi Sunak’s maths plan impossible, experts warn

Education experts and unions say Rishi Sunak’s promise to make all pupils study maths until they are 18 is unattainable because the chronic shortage of teachers in the subject is “at crisis point”.

The government has missed its target for teacher recruitment in seven of the past eight years, official statistics show.

The prime minister unveiled plans to make it compulsory in England to study some form of maths until the age of 18, saying the jobs of the future would require more analytical skills than ever.

He highlighted how many other developed countries including Canada, Germany and the US require maths to be studied until 18.

The former chancellor aims to help people cope better with their personal finances, as well as improving their job skills.

However, critics say a failure to match teacher salary rises to inflation has led to the shortage of staff.

The Education Policy Institute said people aged 16-24 in England had some of the poorest numeracy levels in developed nations.

But David Robinson, of the think tank, said the government needed first to address the shortfall of qualified maths teachers, and to increase funding for 16-18 years to match that of children in school years 7-11.

“Secondly, any new maths provision must work not just for those studying A-levels, but also for the majority of students studying vocational and technical qualifications,” he said.

“Finally, many pupils already fail to master maths by age 16 and many of these have fallen further behind during the pandemic. The government will need to help these pupils to close the gap before a major post-16 expansion can be a success."

Ty Goddard, co-founder of the Education Foundation, which has advised the government on education policy, said: “With real problems with teacher recruitment and retention, lagging salaries across education and investment needed in school buildings, the maths announcement cannot be another eye-catching headline in search of a coherent plan.

“If the announcement seeks to support numeracy or even different  forms of maths to 18, there cannot be any better investment than in the present workforce and the work of sixth forms and further education colleges.”

This year, ministers reduced the target for trainee maths teachers, from 2,800 to 2,040, according to TES magazine.

Geoff Barton, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, said the prime minister had not shown the “slightest evidence” of what his idea would achieve or an acknowledgement of the severe shortage of maths teachers “and the plan is therefore currently unachievable”.  

“The education system doesn’t need more policy gimmicks or random targets, but serious and sustained investment in schools and colleges after a decade of chronic underfunding, and a strategy to address teacher shortages which are at crisis point.”

A survey on teacher recruitment last year by the union found maths was one subject in which teacher recruitment was most difficult.

Mr Barton said post-16 education had suffered “appalling underfunding” for a decade.

Kevin Courtney, general secretary of the National Education Union, said the prime minister seemed to be failing to notice that schools and colleges did not have the teachers to deliver the policy.

“The government has cut teacher pay every year since 2010 and his government’s policies for teacher recruitment aren’t bringing in maths teachers or any other teachers in sufficient numbers,” he told Radio 4’s The World at One.

“They’ve missed their target for maths teachers in every one of the last 12 years despite cutting their target for maths teachers by 39 per cent since 2010. It’s astonishing that he thinks he can just announce this when there are not the resources to back it up.”

The NEU is balloting teachers on strike action for an inflation-matching pay rise.

Teachers’ mean pay is £42,358, government figures show.

“I think the ballot will be in favour of industrial action and Rishi Sunak’s comments are likely to encourage more people to vote yes,” he said.

Bridget Phillipson, Labour’s education spokesperson, said teachers were leaving in their droves.

“Labour will end tax breaks for private schools and use the money to invest in 6,500 more teachers, including maths teachers, to drive up standards in this country,” she pledged.

A government spokesperson said: “The number of teachers in the system remains high, and there are now more than 465,000 teachers working in state-funded schools across the country, which is 24,000 more than in 2010.

“Our bursaries and scholarships worth up to £27,000 and £29,000 tax-free are helping to encourage talented trainees to key subjects such as maths, physics, chemistry and computing. We are offering a levelling-up premium worth up to £3,000 tax-free for maths, physics, chemistry and computing teachers in years 1 to 5 of their careers.

“We are making the highest pay awards in a generation – 5 per cent for experienced teachers and more for those early in their careers, including an up to 8.9 per cent increase to starting salary.”