GCSE results day 2016: Girls' grades predicted to be 'a long way ahead' of boys

Girls are expected to score ‘way ahead’ of boys across the vast majority of school subjects, experts predict, as thousands of pupils celebrate their GCSE results today.

While the gap between male and female attainment levels narrowed slightly after the Government scrapped coursework last year, girls have consistently earned a greater number of A*-C grades than their male peers each year since the GCSE exam system was introduced in 1989.

This year is the final time students will be graded in the traditional manner ahead of Government reforms – a move which has been criticised along with changes to the school curriculum, sparking concern among teaching groups who warn that children’s grades may suffer as a result.

An analysis of this year’s predicted grades by Buckingham University's Centre for Education and Employment Research suggests girls will outperform their male peers to an even greater degree than before.

Professor Alan Smithers, who carried out the analysis, said: “Girls are a long way ahead of boys, doing better in 47 of the 49 subjects and being over 15 percentage points ahead in English.”

“The results this year will be very close to what they were last year, but the increase in people repeating maths and English could lower the top grades slightly because these candidates are more likely to be aiming for a C.

Last year's results showed 73.1 per cent of female students were awarded at least a C grade – generally considered to be a “good“ pass – compared with just 64.7 per cent of their male counterparts.

A higher percentage of female students received the very top grade, with 8 per cent scoring an A* compared with 5.2 per cent of male students – a gap of 2.8 percentage points, with further gaps of 7.2 percentage points at A*-A grade, and widening to 8.4 percentage points at A*-C.

This year’s results include the largest-ever volume of students resitting English and maths papers – a 26 per cent increase on last year. The rise comes after stipulations were brought in under the coalition Government that ruled teenagers in England who do not score at least a C grade in both subjects at the age of 16 must continue to study them for a further two years, or until they reach this level.

According to experts’ analysis, preliminary figures for GCSE entries this year show computing, the sciences, history, geography, Spanish and other modern languages such as Polish and Urdu are on the increase.

Mr Smithers said this was due to schools responding to new accountability measures – including comparing pupils against national averages linked to similarly performing students at the end of primary school education – being used for the first time this year.

Entries for French and German have more than halved since 2000. Citizenship studies, performing arts, media studies, leisure and tourism, and hospitality – all subjects which had a lower-than-average chance of an A*-C grade last year – have also experienced a downturn in entries in 2016.

This is the last year in which GCSE results, introduced nearly 30 years ago, will be scored with grades A* to G.

From next summer, pupils will take reformed courses in English language, English literature and maths. These subjects will be marked numerically – from nine for the top-performing students down to one for those who have struggled.

The changes will be rolled out across a further 17 subjects by summer 2018.

Chris Keates, General Secretary of the NASUWT, said of the change: “Whatever view is taken of the new GCSEs, it is clear that their implementation has been rushed, poorly thought through and undertaken without meaningful consultation with the teaching profession.”

“The central lesson that future governments must learn from the experience of these reforms is that never again should such substantial changes to qualifications that are critical to the life chances of young people be handled in such an incoherent and ill-considered way.”