Private school pupils likely to ‘elbow out’ state students in scramble for university places, experts warn

Poorer pupils are more likely than ever to miss out on top university courses, experts have warned, as this year’s A-level results widen the gap between private and state schools.

The proportion of A-level students given top grades reached a record high, with nearly half achieving an A or above, after exams were cancelled and marks were determined by teachers.

But data from regulator Ofqual showed the increase in A grades was 50 per cent higher in independent schools than in secondary comprehensives – prompting fears that this would combine with the record number of university applications to “compound” inequality in the education system.

The data also showed that black students, those on free school meals and those living in areas of high deprivation were all less likely to achieve the top A or A* grades than their more privileged peers.

The relative success of private schools means state school pupils still trying to pin down a place at university in the weeks ahead could be “elbowed out”, experts warned.

Dr Lee Elliot Major, professor of social mobility at Exeter University, said he was worried many students from low-income backgrounds could lose out during the fierce battle for places – including on top courses at “selective” Russell Group and Oxbridge universities.

“It is deeply concerning to see widening socioeconomic divides in this year’s A-level results, confirming our worst fears – that the pandemic has exacerbated educational inequalities that were already there,” Dr Elliot Major told The Independent.

“On the basis of the results, my worry is that some disadvantaged students won’t get into the highly prestigious courses, and will be elbowed out by those from privileged backgrounds. I also worry whether some [disadvantaged students] who didn’t get the expected grades will get a university place at all.”

The gap between the most privileged and least privileged pupils in securing university places has widened, according to data shared by Ucas on Tuesday. The admissions body admitted that the lack of progress in opening up higher education to all was “disappointing”.

Ucas said a record number of students (395,770) had secured a place on their first-choice university course – up 8 per cent on last year. The data shows 20.7 per cent of all 18-year-olds from the most disadvantaged backgrounds in the UK have secured an undergraduate place, up 2 per cent on last year.

However, the most privileged students are doing far better than before at securing university places. Some 48.4 per cent from the most privileged backgrounds have secured an undergraduate place this year – up 6 per cent on last year.

Carl Cullinane, head of research at the Sutton Trust education think tank, said there is a danger of pupils from independent schools “pulling away” from those in state schools. “The widening gaps in top grades have obvious knock-on implications for admissions to selective universities and widening participation,” he told The Independent.

“We fear it’s likely to have an impact on admissions for disadvantaged students. The scramble for places will be most sharp at the most selective universities. Applications to those universities have shot up this year, so they’re much more competitive than usual.”

The proportion of A-level entries awarded an A grade or higher rose to an all-time high after students were given grades determined by teachers, rather than based on external exams. In total, more than two in five (44.8 per cent) of UK entries were awarded an A or A* grade, up by 6.3 percentage points on last year.

Although teaching unions hailed the success of students in the face of Covid disruption, dismissing concerns about “grade inflation”, experts fear students from less privileged backgrounds won’t be able to take advantage of this year’s record results.

Private schools have seen an absolute increase in A or A* grades of 9.3 per cent this year, compared to 6.2 per cent among secondary comprehensives. The gap in achieving A-level grades between candidates who are black, receive free school meals, or experience a very high level of deprivation and those who are not in those categories widened by 1.43, 1.42 and 1.39 per cent respectively.

Kate Green MP, Labour’s shadow education secretary, said the government’s “chaotic” last-minute decision on exams and assessment over the past year had “opened the door to unfairness”.

Research by the Sutton Trust found that independent, fee-charging schools are more likely than state schools to use a wide variety of assessments – including prior access to questions as well as “open book” tests, which allow pupils to refer to coursework notes.

Parental pressure is also more prevalent at private schools, research has shown. Some 23 per cent of teachers at private schools said parents had approached or pressured them about their child’s grades this year, compared to just 11 per cent at the least affluent state schools, according to the Sutton Trust.

Many pupils spent large parts of this year unable to study effectively due to a lack of appropriate devices, access to the internet or acceptable space to study – factors not included when assessing this year’s results.

Sam Tuckett, senior researcher at the Education Policy Institute, said the impact of the attainment gap was likely to be felt among those trying to get places on the most popular courses at Russell Group universities.

Recent analysis showed that just over two-thirds of applications to selective universities had resulted in offers by July, compared to almost three-quarters at the same stage last year. And the number of courses being offered by selective universities through clearing has fallen by a third, from 4,500 last year to only 3,000 this year.

“We may see some universities unable to offer places to students who have just missed out on expected grades – especially when it comes to high-demand courses at selective universities,” said Mr Tuckett.

“The clearing process could be even more competitive. The A-level results suggest that if you’re from a disadvantaged background, grades won’t have increased as much since last year on average – so you may be more likely to need to apply to university through clearing.”

Educators and campaigners have expressed concerns that basing this year’s A-level results on teacher predictions rather than exams has left black students in particular at a disadvantage.

Research shows that gaps indicating lower outcomes in 2020 for black African, black Caribbean and mixed white students relative to their white British counterparts have increased by between 1.85 and 2.97 percentage points in 2021.

Lavinya Stennett, CEO and founder of The Black Curriculum, a social enterprise, said: “This form of assessment leaves room for teacher biases to determine a student’s worth. For black students in particular, grades will be predicted on the basis of assumed capabilities, stemming from generalised characteristics of their ethnic and socioeconomic background.”

Meanwhile, education secretary Gavin Williamson joined the teaching unions to defend this year’s results amid concerns over grade inflation, calling on people to celebrate young people’s success during a difficult year.

But influential Conservative MP Robert Halfon, chair of the Commons Education Committee, suggested that grade inflation was so “baked” into the system it could cause universities even more problems with admissions in the years ahead.

He told BBC Radio 4’s The World At One: “I do think in the long term, because of the huge increase in As and A*s, that we need to look at our exam system in general.”