View from City Road: Few clues to the German question

Germany may no longer rule the monetary roost, but its recession is still a drag on Europe's performance. But reading where Germany goes next is made no easier by recent contradictory figures.

The 1.2 per cent increase in September industrial orders was unexpected, but the Economics Ministry nevertheless thinks the figure will be revised upwards once all the data is in. Likewise, the ministry expects the 2 per cent fall in industrial production in September to be largely revised away.

It may be right. In any event, that decline followed a rise of 2.2 per cent in industrial production in August and the current two-month picture shows a gentle increase of 0.5 per cent. The best guess is still that Germany is bumping along the bottom, but that any recovery will be uninspiring.