THE WEEK AHEAD
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Companies
A quiet week on the corporate front as the City drifts back to work after the Christmas and New Year break. Only a handful of smaller companies are reporting and no results are scheduled today. However, retailers should start to release their Christmas trading statements this week with additional updates on how the first few days of their winter sales are progressing. Shares in some stores groups, such as Dixons and Marks & Spencer, have already risen on the back of good Christmas sales. Goldsmiths ,the jewellery retailer, has already announced strong sales increases for the run-up to Christmas.
EGMs:
Ransomes, the lawnmowers group, holds its emergency general meeting to approve its pounds 37m rights issue. The issue of 81 million shares priced at 48p is to reduce borrowings and catch up on preference dividend payments. Gearing should fall from 400 per cent to around 60 per cent. This should enable the company to invest more in the business.
Economics
Provisional December figures are due today for M0, the narrow measure of money supply that consists chiefly of notes and coins in circulation. Despite the fluctuations in M0 growth, the underlying growth rate has been stable at around 5.7 per cent in recent months. This is expected to have continued in December with the weekly notes data remaining robust. Analysts are forecasting a 0.6 per cent rise in M0 in December, lowering the annual rate to 5.2 per cent.
House prices will also be the focus of attention this week, with November figures from Nationwide's House Price Index due today and Halifax figures tomorrow. The figures will be watched with interest by housing analysts following predictions by both Halifax and Nationwide of a 2 to 3 per cent increase in house prices over the next 12 months. In the last quarter of 1995 both societies' figures have shown slight increases, leading most experts to predict an end to the downturn that gripped the market for most of 1995.
December figures from the Purchasing Managers Index are forecast to follow a subdued trend. The overall index last month fell to its lowest since November 1992. Both orders received and purchases made are suffering from excess stock levels. This should be reflected in the December survey. The output index, which has risen recently, may fall in December as demand is met by the rundown in stocks. The easing in supply constraints allowed the prices to fall below 50 last month for the first time in more than three years. Prices may rise marginally in December, reflecting the recent decline in sterling and higher commodity prices. However, the underlying trend remains subdued.
Other economics
Big British banking groups' mortgage lending (Nov). UK official reserves (Dec).
TOMORROW
Companies
Interims: None scheduled.
Finals: Throgmorton Preferred Income Trust.
EGMs: Devro Intl, MEPC.
Economics
The second house market indicator of the week is due with December figures from the Halifax Price Index. This has shown an increase for four successive months, one of several tentative signs that the housing market is starting to recover.
The Halifax index is expected to rise again in December. Deutsche Morgan Grenfell is forecasting a 2.5 per cent rise in prices next year.
No significant change is expected in the level of official reserves, with the release of December figures today. Although sterling fell quite heavily in November, there was only a modest decline in underlying reserves.
THURSDAY
Companies
Interims: Abbey, Druck Holdings.
Finals: Warner Estates Holdings.
AGMs: Conrad Ritblat, Estates & Agency.
EGMs: Minmet, ML Holdings.
Economics
New vehicle registrations (November).
FRIDAY
Companies
AGMs: Diploma, GET Group, MMT Computing.
EGMs: Brockhampton Holdings, China & Eastern Inv.
Research by Deutsche Morgan Grenfell
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