Outlook: Gent's fair wind

VODAFONE'S record-breaking bid for Mannesmann is turning out to be a peculiarly low-key affair. After the shock of the initial offer and some opening skirmishes in the courts, the process has settled into one of seemingly endless roadshows in London, Frankfurt and New York.

Little in the way of new financial information is ever ventured at these meetings. Instead, the two companies have presented differing views of the future of telephony, with Vodafone concentrating on its vision of a global, wireless goliath, and Mannesmann emphasising its position as a fixed line player on top of its mobile interests. According to Mannesmann, these fixed line interests are capable of producing growth at least as spectacular as mobile, because of the rapid increase in data and Internet traffic.

Mannesmann's Klaus Esser is probably right about this but it scarcely needs saying that of itself this does not add up to much of a defence. Mannesmann may have a different strategy to that of Vodafone, but the two approaches are hardly contradictory and certainly the fixed line interests do not undermine the industrial logic of putting the companies' mobile interests together.

So does Mr Esser have an ace up his sleeve, which he is holding back for the final moments of the battle? Oddly, he may not. Vodafone is still attempting to produce its offer document, which because it must conform to SEC rules, is proving a painstaking process. Chris Gent, chief executive, promises the document by Christmas, but don't hold your breath. Once issued, the offer period proper begins.

Under German takeover rules, this can be anything between 28 and 60 days, but remarkably, Mannesmann is banned during this period from saying or doing anything of any significance. Its defence must therefore be confined to what has already been said and promised. The general assumption is that Vodafone will face all manner of regulatory obstructions in its quest, but even here, it is hard to see why this should be the case.

Gerhard Schroder is plainly feeling very fed up with Britain and all its representatives, including Vodafone, but he would surely stop short of overt political interference. Any such action would only confirm what Wim Duisenberg, president of the European Central Bank, has already alluded to - Europe's image as a region which is averse to market driven economics.

In these circumstances, Vodafone continues to enjoy a following wind, and the prospect of an eventual agreed deal edges closer. To help Mr Esser save face, Vodafone will have to raise the terms a bit, and top jobs will also need to be created for the Mannesmann team. Both these prices would seem worth paying for the prospect of harmony. However, don't altogether discount the unexpected. There's still scope for a third party to enter the fray - possible WorldCom, or even NTT Docomo of Japan, whose stock is now so high that Mannesmann would represent little more than small change.