Donald Trump seen as 'single largest risk' to economy, Oxford Economics says
The President-elect is also seen as potential driver of US growth
Your support helps us to tell the story
From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, 'The A Word', which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.
At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.
The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it.
Your support makes all the difference.President-elect Donald Trump future policy stance over trade poses the single largest risk to the global economy, a survey from forecasting firm Oxford Economics has found.
The firm’s annual Global Risk Survey, conducted in the aftermath of Trump's victorious election day, examined what investors see as being both the biggest risks to the world economy over the next 12 months and the biggest potential upsides.
Nearly 30 per cent cited a trade war triggered by Mr Trump as the top risk to the global economy over the next two years.
Six months ago, only 2 per cent of respondents cited Mr Trump as the key risk.
The President-elect has previously said that despite China being America’s biggest trading partner, a trade war was already under way and that the country was a “currency manipulator”.
Last week, Mr Trump spoke directly with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen breaking with nearly four decades of US policy and prompting a protest from Beijing, which regards the island as its territory.
He also has vowed to crack down on imports from countries like Mexico and China with steep tariffs – as high as 45 per cent for China, and 35 per cent for Mexico.
Yet while Trump's stance on trade is seen a potential risk, his domestic policies are viewed as potentially stimulating for the US, with 38 per cent saying the US economy could surge on new fiscal stimulus he has proposed.
“The results from the latest Global Risk Survey highlight a marked shift in the global economic outlook” Jamie Thompson, head of Macro Scenarios, said.
“With the degree of policy and political uncertainty unusually elevated, the greatest source of risk to the global economy—both to the upside and the downside— is undoubtedly now the US policy stance once President-elect Trump takes office.”
Join our commenting forum
Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies
Comments