What if Ryanair's Michael O'Leary is right about no Brexit deal getting done?

Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary thinks you'd better line up a stay-cation for 2019.

The airline CEO told the BBC that the UK is in denial over Brexit, and that it’s entirely possible that if David Davis and chums don’t pull their fingers out, there might not be any flights between here and the continent during the Brexit summer.

September 2018 - only just over a year away from now - is the cut off date for airlines when it comes to scheduling for when the UK is formally out of the EU.

If there’s no deal on air access by then, there will be no flights, for at least a couple of months and perhaps for longer. That will create problems that go way beyond people not being able to get to Spain for their summer break (assuming things remain gummed up for that long) unless they’re willing to fly via Boston.

“It is the misunderstanding here in the UK that it (a deal) is in everyone’s interests. It is not in everyone’s interests,” Mr O’Leary said, which is a truth that half the Brexiteers in this country willfully turn a blind eye to. A big chunk of the other half don’t want a deal at all.

There are forces on the continent that are similarly inclined to them because they have a real, as opposed to an ideological, interest in it not happening, European airlines among them.

The realisation that flights and air access make up just one among many pressing problems that might not be solved by the cut off date is one reason why there has been so much talk about transitional arrangements recently. At least on this side.

When even the dismal Liam Fox moves in that direction you know something’s afoot.

Now, it is true that Mr O’Leary is not unfond of hyperbole. He likes nothing better than stirring the pot. However, this is one of those cases where it rather badly needs stirring.

Ask yourself this: What if he’s right. What if, this time, he has a point.

It’s a sobering thought because if he is, the danger we face goes way, way, beyond just a few flights.

Britain hasn’t exactly looked well prepared for what’s to come to date. Talks appear to be proceeding at a snail’s pace. Basic questions still haven’t been answered.

The fallacious line that “they need us more than we need them so we’ll be ok in the end” is still far too prevalent for the good of anyone. Britain’s dangerous arrogance is taking it to a very dangerous place because that simply isn’t true.

The EU will manage just fine without us. German car makers will manage just fine without us. Other parts of the EU that export to us will manage just fine without us.

Oh sure, they’d rather not have to take a hit to their revenues if it’s altogether avoidable. It would be better for some of them for a deal to be done than for the UK to chaotically crash out. But they’ll deal with it if that eventuality arises, and there remains a high chance that it will.

In that case, we remainers will at least have the consolation of saying “I told you so”.

That will prove to be of only slim comfort because we’ll all be in the soup.