Margareta Pagano: The money men have already priced in a Tory victory

From where I was sitting listening to David Cameron's speech, I could see the faces of the party's big moneymen, while they in turn scrutinised the Tory leader's every move as he made his pitch for No 10.

Among them at the front, facing Cameron, were some of the UK's most successful big hitters, men like Michael Spencer of Icap, hedge-fund managers Stanley Fink and Michael Hintze, and Sir James Dyson. And I can tell you there wasn't an unhappy face; they roared along with the party faithful. They liked it, big time, and you could smell that they knew they were in the money. It's just as well they did because now comes the hard stuff – raising all the £18m needed to fight the election campaign.

Even Cameron would agree that, while the conference mood was upbeat, the battle has only just begun and there is still everything to play for. That's why the tone of his speech was pitched at the floating voters, a don't-scare-the-horses speech rather than a rallying cry, and why the emphasis on little state and big personal responsibility, stealing Labour's mantle on poverty, and backing business, was just right.

While Cameron may have set the mood, it was the grim-reaper speech by the Shadow Chancellor, George Osborne, earlier in the week which impressed the City's other moneymen even more – although if the claims in yesterday's press that he got some of the savings numbers wrong are proved correct then a bit of the shine may start to rub off again. All those I spoke to in Manchester said it was the best speech Osborne has given so far, one which showed the "gap year" boy had been forced to grow up pretty smartly over the past few months.

Even Osborne's detractors sulkily agreed that he's gone from knee-shorts to wearing his hair-shirt rather well. The difference between the Tories and Labour over how much they cut from government spending is still infinitesimal, but what the City liked was the way Osborne seemed to mean it. As one muttered to me as we admired a Lowry painting at the City's fantastic art gallery: "The markets have already discounted a Tory victory. Just as well; otherwise we'll sell up and leave."

Ironically, though, Osborne's candour had an interesting effect; the City men now want him to go even further and reveal the full horror of Britain's financial position, another reason why sterling is looking so weak again. It's interesting, too, how Osborne isn't being shy about flexing his muscles, letting it be known that he's had talks already with the world's leading credit agencies to persuade them a future Tory government will not run from being even more ruthless with the deficit or from putting up interest rates again. Osborne can't say it yet, but it's inevitable that there will be VAT and tax increases if he gets to No 11.

All this talk about cuts and tax rises is fine, but it's not enough. What voters want to hear is why would anyone start a company or invest in one today. That's the big criticism I have of current Tory thinking. It's an issue that neither Osborne nor Ken Clarke, the shadow Business Secretary, addressed properly.

Clarke had a stab with his "exploding" legislation but we need bombs on red-tape, not just fire-crackers. He was also spot on to bang on about manufacturing – rather than the voguish term "high value" – and how important it is to redress our lop-sided economy. But Clarke didn't go far enough in tackling what would once have been called an industrial policy. Kicking Lord Mandelson is good knock-about stuff, and fine for conference, but not subtle enough for potential voters who want to know in more detail what he would do instead.

Whether you like His Lordship or not, you've got to hand it to Mandelson that he is at least taking a lead in steering the UK back to making things, even if it is by backing some of the wrong businesses. As Clarke told a fringe meeting, trying to pick "winners" is not clever because government never picks the good ones. He's right. No one is suggesting a statist French approach, but the Tories desperately need stimulating ideas to galvanise our manufacturing base: a quick walk around Manchesters once great cotton warehouses might inspire them.

By far the best atmosphere is confidence, and that will come with getting the deficit under control. But we also need radical action – abolishing tax for those on a minimum wage; new banks and mutual societies; tax incentives to encourage wider share ownership; cuts in stamp duty; institutional investors and boards that are more accountable; research subsidies for hi-tech industry; bringing together universities and investment; and much better teaching in our schools.

Right now, one of the UK's biggest businesses, the Royal Mail, is being destroyed simply because no one – on any side of the political spectrum – has the guts to look at bold plans for reform. Privatisation is out politically, for now, but there are many other models – what about a John Lewis-style partnership with union members and other staff taking shares? Or a cooperative? Why are unions and management so scared of thinking afresh – stuck still in a 1970s mind-set?

Coming up with new ownership structures and practices for the Royal Mail is just one of many opportunities on which the Tories should be working. If they want their recent good fortune turned into a decent majority – and it's not a slam dunk – they need to persuade voters they have the cojones to set out a new political economy. One that will really get people excited about politics again rather than just wanting to get rid of the old lot.