Jason Niss̩: We <i>will</i> join the euro Рjust as soon as Gordon's got his meal ticket
Pity the poor institutions
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Your support makes all the difference.For health and wealth reasons, I wasn't at the Labour Party conference in Blackpool. Health, because the late nights and excessive drinking that accompany these glorified boy scouts (and girl guides) jamborees would have harmed my liver and sleep patterns. Wealth, because the combination of Virgin Trains, grasping hoteliers and jacked-up bar prices would have dented even the deepest wallet. And anyway, thanks to our mates at Vodafone, it was almost impossible to get your mobile to work in the heart of new Labour.
What did I miss?
Well there was the PFI debate where public service workers argued that they were losing out because private firms were getting all the profit from public services, and private firms complained that they couldn't make money from PFI. This left one with the conclusion that the technique only benefits the lawyers and accountants who advise on the deals.
And then there was the debate about the future of British Energy, of which there was little. Most Labourites think it should be allowed to go bust and are less than happy that more dosh was extended to it last month. Talk is that even the latest extension, to the end of November, isn't enough. This débâcle will not be over by Christmas and we cannot be sure of a happy ending.
For students of Kremlinology, Tony Blair's comments on the euro bore some analysis. I have a £10 bet that I cannot lose with Boris Johnson, Tory MP and editor of The Spectator, with him saying that Britain will never join the euro. So long as the euro exists, there will be an attraction. So when Mr Blair mentions "destiny" in talking about joining the euro, he could be pushing our membership out into the far future.
However, he wasn't doing that. He was putting a marker down for early entry, with the go-ahead possible next year. Anyone who thinks that the Treasury's ongoing assessment of the five "economic" tests will be free of political influence has never watched Yes Minister. The assess- ment will give the result asked for and it will be Chancellor Gordon Brown who does the asking.
And will Gordon ask for a "join the euro" answer? Only if he can get something in return. The chatter is that his quid pro quo is a date for Tony to retire as prime minister and Gordon to get the job.
A table for two at Granita, please.
Pity the poor institutions
The back end of the week saw bear raids on two of the City's most colourful organisations.
Aberdeen Asset Management has been battered and barged over recent months – quite rightly, I think – for its role in the split capital trusts scandal. But a group which has some of the most successful unit trusts in the country must have some value and at some point Aberdeen will recover. The danger is that it will end up being bought by a rival – John Duffield's New Star is often mentioned – before this bounce-back.
There is a debate within Aberdeen as to whether it should try and do the best for shareholders or policyholders, because it seems it cannot do both. For example, the scheme to compensate purchasers of its disastrous Progressive Growth Trust, which could set Aberdeen back as much as £30m, may cost more than telling the purchasers "we'll see you in court".
It would be a shame if the market's drubbing of Aberdeen stopped it behaving honourably for once.
Meanwhile, stockbroker Collins Stewart lost a fifth of its value late in the week as a whole slew of rumours circulated. Only one is true – that it is trying to buy the moneybroker Tullett & Tokyo. Collins Stewart has put £230m on the table but Tullett's managers want more.
In this difficult market, with Collins Stewart shares at an all-time low, they will be lucky.
Harvey Pitt, the boss of the US Securities & Exchange Commission, arrives in Europe tomorrow to tell us how he is sorting out the world post-Enron. His latest plan is to unwind 20 years of integration that brought investment bankers and stockbroking analysts under one roof.
However, should independent research firms be created, who will pay for their ideas? Institutional investors are used to getting subsidised research and will now have to put their hands in their pockets or start doing the work themselves.
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