Higher workloads not higher pay: CIPD report lays bare how fall in immigration is hurting British workers

Some sobering findings from the quarterly Labour Market Survey conducted by the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD); which anyone thinking about contributing to the toxic and unbelievably ignorant ongoing conversation taking place in Britain on the subject of immigration ought to read, but probably won’t.

Having surveyed just over 1,000 employers, the CIPD found that seven in 10 reported having vacancies they were struggling to fill against two-thirds (66 per cent) last time around and 61 per cent six months ago. They are also finding it harder to retain the staff they have (34 per cent reported difficulties in this area, up from 27 per cent six months ago).

The cause of these problems isn’t hard to divine. The number of non UK-born workers coming in fell by 58,000 in the 12 months to June 2018. Despite Theresa May’s empty sloganeering about the creation of a Global Britain, the foul smell of her hostile environment migration policy persists. The lion’s share of the decline was made up of non EU-born workers, the number of which coming into the UK fell by 40,000 during the period in question.

Hear, hear, a legion of lumpen trolls rumble. Cuz that means higher wages and more opportunities for the natives!

Erm, not quite. Let’s look at some more of those inconvenient things called facts that are the stock in trade of the CIPD’s output.

The report does point to stronger wage growth for some staff, and for new hires. But it is limited and the overall outlook for wage growth remains unchanged for the majority of UK’s workforce. The median (most common) basic pay rise expectation in the 12 months to September 2019 remains stuck at about 2 per cent, unchanged when compared to three months ago, and below the rate of inflation.

Part of the explanation for this may lie in the weak productivity growth that continues to dog the UK. May’s government has been making a lot of noise about addressing it but to little apparent effect.

The survey data also suggests, however, that Brexit is acting as a brake on basic pay growth for a small but growing proportion of employers. They’re choosing to batten down the hatches and hoard their money as opposed to investing it in their staff, or in anything else for that matter. Given the chaos that will result from the no-deal outcome that appears ever more likely, who could blame them?

The upshot of all this is that the benefits claimed by advocates of reducing migration – more jobs, higher wages – are not being realised by British workers.

But it gets worse. As the survey makes clear, they are suffering from rapidly escalating workloads as businesses, faced with the requirement to keep customers happy and their operations moving, respond to the labour market squeeze by adding to the pressure lumped upon their existing staff.

Long term wages will go up and it’ll all sort itself out, you’ll see, is what the Brexiteers would have you believe despite not having anything resembling evidence to back up their claims. Trouble is, a lot of stressed out workers will have broken down by then. You can only heap so much pressure on people.

Companies faced with that problem, and unable to bring the staff to them, will simply have to go to where they can find the staff. That’s one way of dealing with the labour market squeeze, a way that will ultimately lead to fewer jobs for British workers.