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The Week Ahead: Investors focus on big picture at BSkyB

Saturday 08 November 2003 20:00 EST
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The City has one eye on Christmas parties, but there will be a lot happening before the festivities get under way. The reporting season continues, with several blue chip companies announcing results this week.

After the controversy over management succession, BSkyB will face some tough questions at its AGM on Friday. But the pay TV group will want to focus on operational performance as it reports its first-quarter results. The company has already achieved its target of seven million subscribers, and cashflow is expected to be strong, but the market will be asking how James Murdoch intends to spend this cash, both in terms of strategic direction and dividend payments.

Emap, owner of lad-mag FHM and Kiss radio station, was gloomy about the outlook in September but industry news has been encouraging, with advertising giant WPP being more upbeat. We'll see if Emap feels the same.

These are troubled times for Capital Radio. The audience has dwindled for its flagship station, which has lost the top spot in London to Heart, owned by media minnow Chrysalis. Johnny Vaughan takes over in the breakfast slot next year, but investors will be asking what Capital is doing to reverse this decline.

Steady progress is expected at Yell Group, the directories firm which made its stock market debut in July. The Yellow Pages business will remain under pressure due to regulatory constraints, though this has been offset by growth in its US activities and ventures such as Yell.com.

Sales growth at BT is likely to remain muted, but the market is expecting progress on cost savings and cash generation. A research note from Goldman Sachs says: "Improving margins and a commitment to direct more FCF [free cash flow] to shareholders through an increased dividend and possible buy-back could provide some support for the stock and encouragement for shareholders."

Investors will be looking for clarity from Cable & Wireless, which is transforming itself into a leaner telecoms company. New chief executive Francesco Caio has announced plans to sell the US business, but questions will be asked about its cost and timing. Analysts are undecided while they figure out the prospects of the remaining operations.

British Airways is likely to show a steep decline in profits due to falling revenues and higher fuel costs. The company has already waved goodbye to Concorde, and it will hope to do the same with these terrible trading conditions.

Reckitt Benckiser, owner of household brands such as Harpic and Dettol, is expected to confirm its target of growing sales by 4 to 6 per cent and profits by 14 per cent. Results should show that the company is ahead of schedule.

The trading statement from Kingfisher, the DIY specialist that owns B&Q, is likely to reflect a difficult summer as the heat kept customers away.

The market will be looking for reassurance from International Power, the electricity company, which is aiming to deliver earnings per share of 9p to 11p despite lower wholesale prices in the US and UK. Investors will want an update on the replacement for chief executive David Crane, who is leaving.

It will be a mixed picture at BOC, the gases group. Profits are expected to be good with better trading in Asia, but this is likely to be overshadowed by litigation issues. An ex-employee successfully sued for $1m (£600,000) after a US court ruled that there was a link between welding fumes and Parkinson's disease.

Following Hilton's success in securing the Waldorf last week, investors await the carve-up of the 11 Le Meridien hotels now owned by Royal Bank of Scotland. US chain Fairmont is thought to be close to securing a management deal for the flagship Grosvenor House, although French group Accor remains in the running. Meanwhile, Millenium & Copthorne continues to eye up the international Le Meridien portfolio.

There are unlikely to be too many surprises at Manchester United's AGM, but investors will want to know about developments since the recent spate of share purchases, led by the Irish racing millionaires JP McManus and John Magnier.

The market steams ahead and the momentum could send it higher. Mark Cliffe of ING Financial Markets says: "The market is unduly nervous about rising interest rates. [But] the Bank of England's job is not to keep a lid on the housing market, but to keep inflation under control around the target of 2.5 per cent. There is nothing to suggest that there is an inflation problem out there, and when the market takes this on board, it could move beyond the 4,400 level."

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