Has the government done enough to end fuel shortages and fill gaps on supermarket shelves?

Army troops in combat fatigues began delivering fuel to petrol stations on Monday as drivers waited in line, sometimes for hours, to top up their tanks. Until recently, it would have been a scene that all but the most pessimistic of forecasters would have dismissed as overly apocalyptic.

Yet risks to fuel supplies were both foreseeable and foreseen. Four years ago, the government identified an increased risk four years ago but neglected to update its contingency plans.

Now, having failed to plan ahead, ministers are fighting a rearguard action, hoping that the presence of troops will calm people’s nerves and prevent panic buying.

An alternative interpretation is that nothing quite screams “crisis” like seeing the army on the streets.

What exactly has the government done and will it be enough to solve the problems?

Around 200 army personnel have begun getting fuel hard-hit areas. Half of them are tanker drivers, the rest will be supporting fuel deliveries.

They have only recently undergone a short training course by logistics firm Hoyers. Tanker operators believe the new recruits will be less efficient than experienced drivers who have left the profession.

Haulage industry bosses are reluctant to be seen as critical of the military but many remain sceptical that the plan will be enough.

The industry is short of tanker drivers. Some have retired, others left the country and some are thought to have been lured away by the prospect of big bonuses from supermarkets.

What about gaps on supermarket shelves?

While fuel shortages look set to ease in the coming days as drivers fill up their tanks and demand settles down, issues in food supply chains are likely to last much longer.

Problems with food are being driven by a lack of staff, not by shoppers buying more than normal.

The haulage industry reckons it is short of 100,000 drivers but the true scale of the problem is not known. That estimate is based on a 2016 survey which calculated the country needed another 50,000 drivers. Since then, the number of drivers in the UK has fallen by another 50,000.

The lack of issues elsewhere in the world, makes a mockery of ministers’ denials that Brexit is a factor - albeit far from the only one - causing a lack of petrol at the pumps and food on some supermarket shelves.

The number of lorry drivers fell almost 10 per cent between March 2020 and March 2021. There were 16,000 fewer EU Nationals working as HGV drivers in March 2021 - a drop of more than a third in just 12 months. Some wish to work in the UK but can’t because if immigration controls imposed since 1 January.

Isn’t there a backlog of licence applications

The Driver and Vehicle Licencing Authority (DVLA) has come under fire, particularly by supporters of Brexit, for a backlog of HGV licence applications. However, the organisation has hit back, stating that reporting on the issue has been misleading.

It admits that there are 54,000 licences being processed but says that most of these are people applying to have their licence renewed.

In the interim, those applicants can continue to drive lorries unless they have been told by a doctor that there is a reason they can’t drive. Therefore, it’s unclear how much of an impact speeding up licence renewals would have.

Applications for new licences are being processed within 5 days and the DVLA says it’s getting through about 1,000 a day, on average. That is arguably a more important metric than the backlog of renewal applications.

What solutions has the government pursued?

Hauliers, retailers, and the food industry have been scathing of the government’s proposed solutions to supply chain problems.

Central to those solutions is offering temporary visas to 4,700 lorry drivers until the end of February (having initially said they would end on 24 December).

Even if the whole allocation is taken up quickly it will replace less than a quarter of the drivers lost in the past year and less than a tenth of the number that’s thought to be needed. Many doubt that overseas workers will be keen to take up roles that mean relocating for a job that may only last a few weeks.

Boris Johnson insists that companies must train UK drivers. But that will do nothing to prevent Christmas chaos. Places at HGV training centres are full, with waits of around 11 weeks to book a slot.

A letter from government urging existing HGV licence holders who have left the profession to return has been mocked. The 1 million recipients included German licence-holders who have never driven a lorry.

The message from industry is clear: In the short term, only in influx of overseas workers can fix the problem; in the long term, better working conditions, higher pay and more investment - both public and private - are needed.

It’s not just lorry drivers

Shortages of labour are now stretching into most sectors of the economy, according to research published this week by accountancy firm BDO.

Farmers say they will soon be forced to cull thousands of animals on farms because they need around 15,000 workers on meat production lines.

Around 5,500 poultry workers are to be given temporary visas and ministers are discussing a further allocation for 1,000 butchers.

According to Andrew Opie of the British Retail Consortium, the new visas “will barely scratch the surface” of the problem.

“Supermarkets alone need at least 15,000 HGV drivers for their businesses to be able to operate at full capacity ahead of Christmas and avoid disruption or availability issues.”

The British Meat Processors Association said it was “too late” to prevent Christmas disruption to supplies. A spokesperson said they believed a shortage of turkeys could cause a run on purchases of other meats, which in turn could cause shoppers to fear shortages of other products, sparking a new round of panic buying.

Little the government has so far said or done has injected the confidence needed to ensure that domino effect does not happen.