Could 27 February be Theresa May's Brexit D-Day?

Theresa May has bought herself another stay of execution on her tortuous strategy to pass her Brexit deal through the Commons – but for how long can it last?

MPs ducked an attempt to “take control” of the process in Thursday’s shambolic round of votes believing they have a better chance of succeeding next time round, on 27 February.

This will truly, finally, be “high noon” we are promised, but weary watchers of the Brexit stalemate could be forgiven a snort of derision. Will next time actually be different and decisive?

The honest answer is... probably, but not definitely – because a breakthrough moment depends on a bunch of pro-EU ministers who tend to cower, rather than be courageous.

On 27 February, Labour’s Yvette Cooper and her Tory allies will again try to compel the prime minister to seek an extension to Article 50, by winning a vote leading to binding backbench legislation.

If they succeed, it would not only be revolutionary, but would blow sky high Ms May’s strategy to (pretend to?) threaten a no-deal Brexit to “blackmail” MPs to pass her deal as late as the final days of March.

The Cooper bill failed by 27 votes last month – and was not attempted last Thursday – because Tory ministers terrified by crashing out were still unwilling to quit to win the freedom to back it.

Now, finally, there are signs that will change, as we near the 29 March cliff edge. A “dozen or even more” are ready to resign, including “up to half a dozen” from the cabinet, senior Tory Dominic Grieve told us.

David Gauke, the justice secretary, has gone public, setting a 10-day deadline for Ms May to secure the changes needed to pass her deal, or “act responsibly” to shut off a no deal – or face a cabinet walkout.

The prime minister’s chances are vanishingly slim, as the EU refuses to bend on the Irish backstop, although she will be back in Brussels for talks on Wednesday. So the Cooper bill remains the key – and 27 February the day of destiny.

Intriguingly Michel Barnier, the EU negotiator, will meet Jeremy Corbyn next week – after Brussels pointed to Labour’s softer Brexit plan as the only plausible way forward.

Got an unanswered question about Brexit? Send it to editor@independent.co.uk and we’ll do our best to supply an answer in our Brexit Explained series