Beyoncé, Shaboozey and Post Malone topped country in 2024. How will Grammy voters respond?

Country music has become a dominant force, bleeding into pop music's mainstream. And artists who might not have been previously associated with the genre — like Beyoncé and Post Malone — have recently released country albums.

They’ve been popular, but their prospects at the Grammys remain uncertain.

Beyoncé's landmark “Cowboy Carter" recentered Black performers in this music's history and made her the first Black woman to hit No. 1 on Billboard country albums chart.

Shaboozey's “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” is the biggest song of the year, having spent more weeks at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 than any other — it combines his twang with the familiar sample of J Kwon's 2004 rap hit “Tipsy.”

This summer, he followed Beyoncé to became only the second Black artist ever to top Billboard’s pop and country singles charts at the same time.

And Post Malone made an effortless transition into the world of country, spending time in Nashville, playing at the Grand Ole Opry, and dominating the charts with “I Had Some Help,” his collaboration with Morgan Wallen.

For all the success, will these country newcomers be rewarded when the Grammy Award nominations are announced next week? Here’s some key things to know.

What are the Grammys' country categories?

There are four main Grammy country music categories: best country album, best country solo performance, best country duo/group performance and best country song. The latter is awarded to the songwriters.

Each category recognizes five nominated works.

Who submitted in the country categories?

Beyoncé, Shaboozey and Post Malone have been submitted in all four of the major country music categories, including country album of the year for “Cowboy Carter,” “Where I’ve Been, Isn’t Where I’m Going,” and “F-1 Trillion,” respectively. They are not guaranteed nominations, though each has submitted in several other categories that honor pop, R&B and Americana and are also vying for best album, record and song of the year recognition.

Beyoncé's “Texas Hold ‘Em” has been submitted in the country song category. “16 Carriages” is up for country solo performance and in the country duo/group performance category, “ll Most Wanted,” her duet with Miley Cyrus, has been submitted.

In the case of Shaboozey: “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” is up for the country song and country solo performance categories. “My Fault” with Noah Cyrus is up for country duo/group performance.

And lastly, for Post Malone: “I Had Some Help” with Wallen is up for country song and country duo/group performance. “Yours” is his submission in the country solo performance category.

They will likely be up against some of the 2024 Country Music Association Awards’ best country album nominees, which include Luke Combs’ “Fathers & Sons,” Cody Johnson’s “Leather,” Kacey Musgraves’ “Deeper Well” and Chris Stapleton’s “Higher,” as well as the other all-stars who’ve released albums that are eligible for Grammy nomination, Lainey Wilson’s “Whirlwind” among them.

Is Beyoncé likely to score a Grammy nomination in country categories?

Beyoncé received no nominations for “Cowboy Carter” for the 2024 CMAs, a decision country star Mickey Guyton called dispiriting — and one that might reflect the ways in which the Nashville country music industry operates. Could the same happen at the Grammys?

“A lot of times in country music, if you’re releasing a country record, you need to — you don’t need to, but it’s beneficial to you to — invest in the community and really show yourself in that audience so the community feels an attachment to you," Guyton said. "Nashville is very, very, very — it’s a club almost, and it’s a community. And people ... feel like they need to know you. And so that was definitely a factor. It still doesn’t make it not disappointing.”

If Beyoncé receives a best country album Grammy nomination, she will become the second Black artist to do so — Guyton was the first, for her 2022 debut, “Remember Her Name.”

Country musician BRELAND, who is both a CMA and Grammy voter, points to the differences between both award shows.

“Nashville in general is a community that, when you come to town, you kind of pay your dues. And I feel like that’s the way that the system runs. That’s how country radio runs," he explained. “You saw Post Malone really ingratiate himself in the in the community here in Nashville, which I think contributed to him getting some of those looks. You know, Shaboozey was nominated (at the CMAs,) but you also saw him playing CMA fest and playing a bunch of these country festivals.”

In Beyoncé’s case, “Her not being here (in Nashville) probably didn’t help her case for getting nominated,” he continued. “She’s done a really great job in helping to change the narrative in country music, and I would be surprised if she wasn’t acknowledged in some respect at the Grammys. ... Grammy voting members are probably going to be a little bit more receptive to that, than people would be on the CMA side.”

Maura Johnston, a freelance music writer and Boston College adjunct instructor, said Beyoncé “often is a victim of tall poppy syndrome where she’s so good, she’s so great and so, like, on another level from everybody," the gut reaction is to “honor something else." Race is a consideration, too, where Black performers are rarely recognized in country categories.

“She should get nominated because it is such an artistic achievement. You know, it is such a way for people to get a very crash course in the history of Americana," she continues. "But I also know how country feels about outsiders.”

On the flip side, Johnston argued that Grammy voters may attempt to course-correct the decision made by the CMAs, and ensure she receives nominations. “It would be a nice tip of the cap and a nice realization that, yeah, the music business is pretty big, and we have to get rid of the parochialism that can dominate,” she said.

What are Post Malone's Grammy prospects in country categories?

“Just judging by country radio’s reaction to him, I think he might have the best shot of the three,” said Johnston.

“Radio, it’s such a crucial gatekeeper in the country music industry," and Malone is playing the game, she says. “The album ... has so many cameos from, like, everybody in country music,” she added. “The possibility of him getting nominated just by the people he collaborated with is very high.”

Those include Hank Williams Jr, Tim McGraw, Dolly Parton, Combs and Wilson. “I think he has a better shot at receiving a nomination for country album of the year.

Johnston said she believes that were the inclusion of “I Had Some Help,” which features Morgan Wallen could be a hinderance at the Grammys, where past behaviors — such as throwing a chair off a Nashville rooftop near two police officers and using a racial slur in a 2021 video — mean “he is still a bit radioactive.”

Despite having some of the biggest songs and albums of the last few years, Wallen has never been nominated for a Grammy. (At February's show, his single “Last Night” was nominated in the best country song category, but did not win. Wallen wouldn't have received a trophy anyway — it is given to the songwriters only.)

Overall, she sees Malone as a lock from some nomination — particularly those that don't include Wallen.

What are Shaboozey's Grammy chances?

As great as Shaboozey's album is, it's much more likely that the country star will be recognized for his massive hit, “A Bar Song (Tipsy.)”

“It kind of builds on the premise of ‘Old Town Road,’” says Johnston, pointing to Lil Nas X's game changing single.

“A Bar Song (Tipsy)” hit No. 1 on both the country and all-genre charts, she points out. “It's a cross-genre moment, and just a good song. It's also classically country.”

Shaboozey “was the first male Black artist to chart at No. 1 on country songs and country airplay,” she Johnston said, “So I think that’s a good sign that, you know, radio embraced him.”

Perhaps the Grammys will do the same.

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Gary Gerard Hamilton contributed to this report.