Grammys 2025

Who will (and who should) win at the 2025 Grammy Awards

Some of pop’s biggest artists are vying for the top prizes this year. Roisin O’Connor picks the most likely candidates for the ‘big four’ categories

Sunday 02 February 2025 08:32 GMT
Comments
Highlights from 2024 Grammy Awards

Your support helps us to tell the story

From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, 'The A Word', which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.

At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.

The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it.

Your support makes all the difference.

The Grammy Awards are notorious for getting it wrong. Over the years, the Recording Academy has caused uproar as it either snubs those artists deemed most deserving or goes with a rogue choice that no one saw coming. This means that each year it’s really anyone’s guess, no matter how much of a certainty an artist might seem.

In 2025, the “big four” categories of Album of the Year, Record of the Year, Song of the Year and Best New Artist are as competitive as ever, with breakthrough pop stars Chappell Roan and Sabrina Carpenter muscling up against heavyweights like Taylor Swift and Beyoncé.

Pioneering British artist Charli XCX and groundbreaking, Pulitzer Prize-winning rapper Kendrick Lamar are up against The Beatles; UK singer and Grammys first-timer RAYE is competing with viral stars Benson Boone and Teddy Swims.

Ahead of the ceremony in Los Angeles on Sunday 2 February, here’s a look at the runners and riders for the big four categories at the Grammys.

Follow live updates from the 2025 Grammy Awards here.

Record of the Year

The Beatles - “Now and Then”

Beyoncé - “Texas Hold ’Em”

Sabrina Carpenter - “Espresso”

Charli XCX - “360”

Billie Eilish - “Birds of a Feather”

Kendrick Lamar - “Not Like Us”

Chappell Roan - “Good Luck, Babe!”

Taylor Swift featuring Post Malone - “Fortnight”

A reminder for the uninitiated: the Record of the Year prize is distinguished from Song of the Year by recognising the artists, producers and engineers who contributed to the recording, while Song of the Year deals more with the composition and recognises the songwriters behind the track. That said, most people – voters included – don’t often find much meaningful difference between the two.

If we are following those Grammy guidelines, though, The Beatles could be a controversial win due to the use of AI technology to retrieve the vocal and instrument stems of a muddled recording by John Lennon at his piano in the years before his death. It’s certainly clever, perhaps even groundbreaking, and The Beatles’ status alone could help to sway voters.

However, there’s plenty of competition from Kendrick Lamar’s slick and sharp “Not Like Us”, a Monk Higgins’-sampling diss track aimed at fellow hip-hop star Drake that served – to many – as the killshot in their longstanding feud. Charli XCX’s “360”, the second single from her critically adored album Brat, incorporates hyperpop and electropop fizz from regular collaborators AG Cook and Cirkut.

Grammys favourites Taylor Swift, Billie Eilish and Beyoncé are all in the mix: Swift with her gloomy, Eighties-influenced “Fortnight” ft Post Malone, Eilish with her sleeper hit “Birds of a Feather”, and Beyoncé with “Texas Hold ’Em”, her foray into country music.

Relative newcomer Chappell Roan is nominated for her runaway hit, the shuffly, squelchy baroque-synth bop “Good Luck, Babe!”, while her fellow breakthrough star, Sabrina Carpenter, feels like a potential shoo-in thanks to “Espresso”, a shot of perfectly produced pop.

Amazon Music logo

Enjoy unlimited access to 100 million ad-free songs and podcasts with Amazon Music

Sign up now for a 4 month free trial (3 months for non-Prime members)

Sign up
Amazon Music logo

Enjoy unlimited access to 100 million ad-free songs and podcasts with Amazon Music

Sign up now for a 4 month free trial (3 months for non-Prime members)

Sign up

Should win: Kendrick Lamar - “Not Like Us”

Will win: Sabrina Carpenter - “Espresso”

Clockwise from top left: Raye, Taylor Swift, Charli XCX, Beyoncé, Billie Eilish, Kendrick Lamar, Sabrina Carpenter and Chappell Roan
Clockwise from top left: Raye, Taylor Swift, Charli XCX, Beyoncé, Billie Eilish, Kendrick Lamar, Sabrina Carpenter and Chappell Roan (The Independent/Getty Images)

Song of the Year

“A Bar Song (Tipsy)” - Sean Cook, Jerrell Jones, Joe Kent, Collins Obinna Chibueze, Nevin Sastry and Mark Williams - songwriters (Shaboozey)

“Birds of a Feather” - Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell - songwriters (Billie Eilish)

“Die with a Smile” - Dernst Emile II, James Fauntleroy, Lady Gaga, Bruno Mars and Andrew Watt - songwriters (Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars)

“Fortnight” - Jack Antonoff, Austin Post and Taylor Swift - songwriters (Taylor Swift featuring Post Malone)

“Good Luck, Babe!” - Kayleigh Rose Amstutz, Daniel Nigro and Justin Tranter - songwriters (Chappell Roan)

“Not Like Us” - Kendrick Lamar - songwriter (Kendrick Lamar)

“Please Please Please” - Amy Allen, Jack Antonoff and Sabrina Carpenter - songwriters (Sabrina Carpenter)

“Texas Hold ‘Em” - Brian Bates, Beyoncé, Elizabeth Lowell Boland, Megan Bülow, Nate Ferraro and Raphael Saadiq - songwriters (Beyoncé)

As usual, there’s plenty of overlap in this category with the Song of the Year group. Instead of “Espresso”, though, Carpenter is competing with her latest album’s fizzy second single “Please Please Please”, in which she asks/warns her bad boy lover not to embarrass her.

Elsewhere, Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars’s Billboard 100-topping smash “Die with a Smile” could cause a big upset if it wins over the likes of Lamar.

Fans might remember that Mars has previous with the Compton rapper, having scooped him for the coveted Album of the Year prize in 2018 when many believed Lamar should have won for his critically adored fourth record, DAMN.

Will win: Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”

Should win: Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”

Kendrick Lamar accepting a Grammy for Best Rap Album in 2023
Kendrick Lamar accepting a Grammy for Best Rap Album in 2023 (Kevin Winter/Getty Images for The Recording Academy)

Best New Artist

Benson Boone

Sabrina Carpenter

Doechii

Raye

Chappell Roan

Shaboozey

Khruangbin

Teddy Swims

Chappell Roan would be a worthy winner in the Best New Artist category
Chappell Roan would be a worthy winner in the Best New Artist category (AP)

These days, Best New Artist categories tend to feel embarrassingly out-of-touch considering the rapid pace of music consumption in the age of streaming. Still, both Chappell Roan and Sabrina Carpenter would be worthy contenders after their huge breakthroughs in 2024, ditto Raye – the sole British contender on this year’s list – who swept the Brit Awards in a fairytale evening last March.

Really, it should go to Doechii, the Tampa, Florida-born rapper, who so far has not missed with superb tracks such as “Denial is a River” and “Alter Ego” ft JT. Texas psych-rock trio Khruangbin released their debut album a decade ago – hopefully voters aren’t that behind the times.

Then there’s the TikTok trio: Shaboozey, Teddy Swims and Benson Boone, whose respective singles “A Bar Song (Tipsy)”, “Lose Control” and “Beautiful Things” have been virtually inescapable on the platform for the last 12 months.

Will win: Chappell Roan

Should win: Doechii

Doechii is one of the biggest rap breakthroughs in recent years
Doechii is one of the biggest rap breakthroughs in recent years (AP)

Album of the Year

André 3000 - New Blue Sun

Beyoncé - Cowboy Carter

Sabrina Carpenter - Short n’ Sweet

Charli XCX - Brat

Jacob Collier - Djesse Vol 4

Billie Eilish - Hit Me Hard and Soft

Chappell Roan - The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess

Taylor Swift - The Tortured Poets Department

Beyoncé fans will be hoping the ‘Cowboy Carter’ star finally takes home an Album of the Year Grammy
Beyoncé fans will be hoping the ‘Cowboy Carter’ star finally takes home an Album of the Year Grammy (Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.)

Beyoncé fans will be holding their breath yet again to see if the Cowboy Carter artist finally takes home AOTY. Despite holding the record for the artist with the most Grammy wins (32, if you were wondering), she’s also been snubbed on more than one occasion for the album and Record of the Year prizes.

This year, she’s got some fierce competition: Taylor Swift is eyeing up what would be a record-breaking fifth Album of the Year win for The Tortured Poets Department, and could also become the first female artist to win the prize in consecutive years (Stevie Wonder and Frank Sinatra are the only ones to achieve this feat before).

Taylor Swift is eyeing up a record-breaking fifth Album of the Year win
Taylor Swift is eyeing up a record-breaking fifth Album of the Year win (Getty Images for The Recording A)

Instead of handing over the award to a pop juggernaut, though, Grammys voters might prefer to acknowledge the slow-burning success of Chappell Roan’s brilliant debut, The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess, or indeed Sabrina Carpenter’s breakthrough sixth album, Short n’ Sweet. If they’re feeling particularly Brat, they could go for Charli XCX’s neon-green club classic, which reached a very respectable No 3 in the US albums chart. Grammys darling Billie Eilish would be a more obvious (read: boring) win with her third record, Hit Me Hard and Soft.

Another Brit, music prodigy Jacob Collier, would be a more controversial win should the Grammys decide to honour a male artist over the pop queens who dominated 2024. He’s another favourite among the Recording Academy, despite a somewhat ambivalent critical reception to his contender, Djesse Vol 4. Another potential upset could be André 3000’s divisive flute-led album – his first full-length release in 20 years – New Blue Sun.

Will win: Beyoncé

Should win: Chappell Roan

See the full list of Grammy 2025 nominations here.

Join our commenting forum

Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies

Comments

Thank you for registering

Please refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged inPlease refresh your browser to be logged in