Derek Pain: Food and drink are on a roll but the snack machine is empty

The No Pain, No Gain portfolio has managed to make progress since my September review, but overall it has been something of a standstill quarter for my little collection of shares. Still, the gain has been enhanced and is again above the £150,000 mark, which is near a record result.

My most recent recruits, Distil and Serco, experienced contrasting fortunes – with one giving ground and the other moving forward but then surrendering momentum following a mixed trading update.

Patisserie is the sole share among my other 2015 newcomers to enjoy prosperity. The shares, already ahead of my buying price at around 380p, have continued to progress following the year’s figures. Mike Dennis, an analyst at stockbroker Cantor Fitzgerald, has moved his target price to 385p, describing the café and cake shop chain as a “very strong cash converter”. He estimates profits this year should hit £17.4m, against £14.6m in the 12 months to September 2015.

Other brokers also seem enthusiastic. Canaccord Genuity forecasts that the current year’s out-turn will be £17.2m and Peel Hunt describes the company as “ultimately a growth story”.

Patisserie is run by serial entrepreneur Luke Johnson, and Eclectic Bar Group is also in his orbit. It is one of the shares I am considering for portfolio membership. The company floated at 160p two years ago and the shares are now around the 60p level. Mr Johnson arrived in June taking an 18.5 per cent stake at 50p a pop. The chain of trendy bars suffered a £5.8m loss last year but is now being dramatically reorganised and acquisitions are on the horizon.

The brewer and pub owner Marston’s has also been on a roll. The broker Numis suggests profits this year could increase from £91.5m last time to around £99m.

Lloyds Banking Group is one constituent that has given ground from my buying price. It is still within hailing distance of the 74.8p I paid, but the Government’s policy of drip-feeding the market with shares is taking its toll. At the time of writing, the Westminster stake was down to 9.2 per cent. Next year, probably in the summer, private investors will be invited to subscribe for shares at, it seems, enticing terms. In the meantime there is more stock to unload. The Government has been selling shares at above the 73.6p originally paid when the bank was rescued during the financial crisis.

I remain convinced that once the 9.2 per cent returns to private ownership, Lloyds should contribute to the portfolio. It is paying dividends, producing profits and has come top of the quoted banks in the Bank of England’s new stress tests.

Peel Hotels is just above the portfolio’s buying price. Interestingly, JP Morgan Asset Management, the US fund, has acquired 8.9 per cent of the shares. The Peel family controls the chain. Chairman Robert Peel, who built the Mount Charlotte hotels group, holds a 39.2 per cent stake and his brother Charles has 20.3 per cent.

SnackTime remains the dog of the portfolio – the shares, at 8p, are still suspended. However, it seems that talks to reshape the balance sheet are making progress.

Investors have been called to a meeting later this month. They will be asked to allow the group to allot shares and give up their pre-emption rights over rights issues. Presumably Boris Belotserkovsky, the Russian millionaire who rescued SnackTime and now controls it, is prepared to pump yet more cash into the struggling vending-machine vehicle.

Yourmoney@independent.co.uk