The last year has been a bitter disappointment for investors,

The happy days quickly disappeared with investors getting into a tizzy over a sudden flow of bad news

Derek Pain
Friday 16 October 2015 11:59 EDT
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FTSE 100 bosses warn Brexit would threaten investment in UK
FTSE 100 bosses warn Brexit would threaten investment in UK (AFP/Getty Images)

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It has been an excruciating year for stock market investors. In the opening weeks it was rather subdued, but then it appeared to blossom and I thought we were in for a rewarding 12 months.

But unless there is a display of outstanding exuberance in the remaining weeks of 2015 – and that seems highly unlikely – the 12 months will, for many, represent a bitter disappointment.

For once the old saying “sell in May” has turned up trumps. In April, the benchmark FTSE 100 share index was riding at a peak of 7,110 points and it looked as though my prediction that it could top 7,200 this year would be exonerated. However, those happy days quickly disappeared with investors getting into a tizzy about a sudden flow of bad news.

Shares, therefore, retreated as China’s growth faltered and the seemingly perennial Greek implosion continued. As if these unsettling events were not enough, the Chinese slowdown helped to create a commodities crisis which also caused anxiety in some emerging stock markets.

So the Footsie dropped below 6,000. There have been signs of a revival, prompting speculation that the worst is over. I wonder. Perhaps investors should continue to grit their teeth and, if they are brave, take advantage of any continuing volatility. After all, there are bargains to be had by those prepared to take a long-term view.

During this year, in an unusual burst of activity, the No Pain, No Gain portfolio recruited five shares. Some of this action stemmed from two profitable takeovers; the other three purchases represented a more ruthless approach to under-performers.

As I write only one of my five is showing a loss. Mind you the remaining four are only modestly in profit but, even so, they are contributing to the portfolio’s well-being.

A few weeks ago, I enlisted my fifth share of 2015 – the deeply troubled Serco support services group. I took the view that the stock market, in its depressed state, was ignoring the company’s recovery potential.

My intention is to enlist at least another two shares before this year ends.

The portfolio, despite the run of recruits, is still only 12 strong. As I have said, it does need reinforcements, but I am reluctant to rush in. I realise there are some enviable shares around, but I want to be certain – at least as far as one can be – that I am on the right track. After all, I have my eye on some AIM-traded stocks, and it is easy to stumble in what some regularly describe as a “casino”.

One long-time – and profitable – recruit is the aircraft leasing group Avation. It is fully listed but is by far the dominant power at a little AIM company, Capital Lease Aviation (CLA). It has around 96 per cent of CLA’s capital and seems prepared to continue the quote. Maybe it has plans to use CLA’s shares as takeover currency?

Avation had a spell in the red, sinking below my 83.5p purchase price. Shares of the aircraft leaser have now been profitable for about two years. Jeff Chatfield, a significant shareholder in Avation, is chairman of both companies. He remains in expansionist mood – indeed, he has continued to develop CLA, which has just acquired a leased Airbus at a cost of $24.25m (around £15.8m). It is CLA’s fourth Airbus. The shares are trading at 23.5p, capitalising the company at £22.5m.

Yourmoney@independent.co.uk

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