Investment Insider: How can you ride the house price wave?

It's not only the builders that stand to stage a recovery

David Kuo
Saturday 05 October 2013 14:05 EDT
Comments

Your support helps us to tell the story

From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, 'The A Word', which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.

At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.

The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it.

Your support makes all the difference.

Regardless of the arguments over the rights and wrongs of government-subsidised mortgage schemes, the simple truth is that the housing market is linked to the health of the economy.

Companies connected either directly or indirectly to the housing market are commonly referred to as cyclical stock. In other words, when the economy does well, these companies tend to do well. But when it is in the doldrums, these companies tend to perform less well.

Since the collapse of Lehman Brothers (which now seems like an eternity away) and the subsequent sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone, the housing market has unquestionably been adversely affected. This is primarily because of reluctance by banks to put their money on the line by lending to prospective homeowners. But there are signs that a recovery in lending is under way, thanks in part to government initiatives to absorb some of the risk. It is also because banks are feeling more optimistic about the future.

It should be said that even without the boost from the government, housebuilders entered the economic down cycle by battening down the hatches, slashing debt and focusing on margins rather than flooding the market with affordable homes. They adjusted quickly to the credit-strapped economy by directing resources at the more expensive end of the market, where activity remained buoyant. After all, why would housebuilders build cheaper houses that they can't sell?

Thing is, the market has, to some extent, already priced in a recovery for housebuilders. Shares in many construction companies have risen quite substantially since 2011. For instance, shares in Barratt Developments that only cost around 94p in 2011 would set you back 300p today.

On the face of it, shares in housebuilders look to have recovered significantly. As a group, though, housebuilders are still only valued at around 12 times earnings, which does not look expensive. What's more, the market is expecting profits at many housebuilders to rise significantly over the next couple of years. For instance, profits at Taylor Wimpey are expected to improve 40 per cent this year and around 26 per cent the year after. If the forecasts for UK housebuilders pan out as expected, their current valuations would look quite modest.

Buying shares in housebuilders could be one way of investing in a housing recovery. But there are other ways of benefiting from a real-estate revival. Travis Perkins is a supplier of materials to the building trade. Performance at the company has been affected by the economic slowdown. In 2009, profits fell around 15 per cent but have rebounded since. Profits this year are expected to rise around 5 per cent and a further 10 per cent in 2014.

Real-estate agents may be worth looking at too, given that wherever there is a housing transaction an estate agent is unlikely to be too far away. Some of the more interesting players include M Winkworth, Countrywide and Savills. The latter is not only a play on the UK property market but also has an international network of more than 500 offices and associates. Half its turnover is generated in the UK and 40 per cent from the Asia Pacific region. That might explain its resilient performance in the face of an economic slowdown in the UK.

David Kuo is director of fool.co.uk

Join our commenting forum

Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies

Comments

Thank you for registering

Please refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged inPlease refresh your browser to be logged in