Cleaner and leaner fast food threatens hegemony of hamburgers

Annoyed at having to pass a branch of McDonald's on the way to his office in Minsk every day, the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, decided to strike a blow for traditional cuisine.

He insisted that the former Soviet republic must support outlets selling local food to compete with the six Belarus branches of the American hamburger chain. Mr Lukashenko took a small but important step towards a bright new future for convenience food by officially opening two Khutkaye Kharchavanne ("fast food") cafés selling fast-food versions of traditional dishes such as draniki (potato pancakes stuffed with sausage) and shkvarki (fried pork fat). "Overseas food is unhealthy and even risky," said city officials.

From Broadway in New York to Oxford Street in London, via downtown Minsk and the teeming tower blocks of Hong Kong, the global hegemony of hamburger culture is being slowly eaten into.

In the United States, for example, the sandwich entrepreneur Fred DeLuca, who opened his first "submarine" sandwich shop in Connecticut in the late Sixties, is planning a worldwide expansion drive to challenge the already shaky Big Mac.

Twelve months ago, with almost 14,000 outlets, his Subway chain overtook the number of McDonald's franchises in America. And now Mr DeLuca has his sights set on Europe, with Britain as a bridgehead.

More than 110 branches have opened up, almost unnoticed, in the past two years. "A total of 2,000 British branches – more than McDonald's – are planned by 2011. McDonald's are definitely his target,'' said Matthew McKenna, Mr DeLuca's British spokesman.

But he has at least one rival. In Hong Kong, Michael Chan, the chairman of Café de Coral (see panel), reputedly the world's biggest chain of Chinese-style fast-food restaurants, is also planning global domination. After achieving saturation in Hong Kong, he is turning his eyes on the West: "The Chinese will displace the burger and the pizza," he is said to have declared.

The reasons for McDonald's troubles are well known: the anti-globalisation movement, the crisis of confidence in beef caused by BSE, the drive towards healthier eating and the prospect of lawsuits in the US from obese people. It has begun to reduce the number of restaurants it is opening, pulling out of three countries – Turkey and two in Latin America – and closing 175 under-performing outlets. Earlier this month, shares fell after its chairman resigned and it recorded its first quarterly loss.

But it is not just McDonald's that is struggling. Burger King, the second-biggest chain, could only be sold after its owner, the drinks giant Diageo, agreed to subsidise heavily its $1.5bn (£0.9bn) sale to a group of American investors with an $850m loan to cover debts. According to a survey last year by the market analysts Mintel, the number of people who say they do not eat in multinational chains on principle has doubled since 1999, while research by the US management consultant McKinsey forecasts that the fast-food industry will only grow by 1 per cent a year during the next eight years, less than half the current rate.

So, like vultures circling a wounded lion, the DeLucas and Chans of the world sense that they might soon be able to peck out its eyes and eventually feed on its carcass.

Analysts divide the newcomers on the fast-food conveyor belt broadly into two trends: the faux ethnic, as represented by both Mr Lukashenko and Mr Chan, and the reinvention of existing food genres, such as sandwiches, into what is being dubbed "fast casual" as epitomised by Mr DeLuca.

Many see "fast casual" as the dominant trend. Ron Paul, of the American management consultants Technomic, defines fast casual as "more expensive and fresher than fast food; casual dining that is not full service." In other words, something that falls into the middle ground between a fast-food outlet, a sandwich shop and a more formal restaurant.

Rapidly expanding American fast-casual chains include Schlotzsky's, which prides itself on its Asian Almond Chicken Wrap, and Panera Bread, which sells sandwiches and soups. In Britain, although we may not yet have realised it, fast-casual food is already among us – witness the expanding range of wraps and sandwiches at what were once simply coffee shops such as Starbucks, the quiet rise of Subway and the expanding Nando's chain of Portuguese/ South African chicken outlets. – not quite fast food, not quite a restaurant, but for the middle classes, a perfectly acceptable place for the nanny to take the kids.

Then there is Pret A Manger, certainly a candidate for a home-grown fast-casual chain. Not many observers fully realised what was going on when McDonald's took a stake in the upmarket sandwich and sushi chain, which prided itself on its cool urban image and emphasis on quality, GM-free ingredients. Pret, as its aficionados call it, is part of McDonald's fightback in the war against fast casual. Back home in the US, McDonald's has also purchased a chain called Boston Market, which is termed a "homestyle" outlet, selling meatloaf and chicken to middle Americans.

But while Mr Chan looks west, McDonald's is looking east. The burger giant is now turning many of its outlets in Japan into Pret-style sandwich bars, selling English sandwiches and Pret's own sushi to the Japanese. Much of its future planned expansion is in China, where people still see hamburgers as modern and cool: 100 franchises a year are set to open.

So the future of fast food will see a global cultural exchange: Britain will get America's submarine sandwiches, Americans have a choice of Asian wraps and noodles, the Chinese will be happy with their burgers while the Japanese will be walking down central Toyko munching on a cheese and pickle sandwich. All that is needed now is for a branch of Khutkaye Kharchavanne to open in Oxford Street.

Appetite for a fight - newcomers that have McDonald's on the run

SUBWAY: Soft baguettes, crammed with whatever combination the customer wants: cheese, salami, steak, olives, gherkins and more. The 6-inch version is never quite enough, the 12-inch far too much. Speciality bread types include honey and herb. The chain now has more franchises in America than McDonald's

NANDO'S: Expanding chain of family-friendly Portuguese-styled outlets that try to bridge the gap between fast food and old-fashioned restaurants, serving fried chicken with simple side dishes and a selection of sauces. Unusually for fast food, they are licensed. Patronised by those who avoid McDonald's

BOSTON MARKET: Cheap and cheerful canteen-style outlet for families, but more upmarket than McDonald's. Chicken, turkey or meatloaf served with vegetables and gravy, with 650 outlets across the US.

SCHLOTZSKY'S: Motto: Funny Name, Serious Sandwich. Deli-style catering for middle America. Hot and cold sandwiches, wraps and rolls and soups, with 650 outlets in the US and 10 other countries

PRET A MANGER: Britain's contribution to the new cuisine – upmarket sandwiches, sushi and juices for office workers who were deeply shocked when McDonald's bought a share. Prides itself on cool image