Unhappy birthday: Russia’s Vladimir Putin turns 70 with plenty to ponder

Vladimir Putin turns 70 on Friday.

It is a landmark birthday but it is fair to say however he chooses to mark the day, a shadow will hangover the Russian president’s celebrations.

In previous years he has celebrated by hiking in Siberia, playing ice hockey and scoring seven goals, and attending world summits.

This year promises not to be so grand a birthday - despite last week’s “gift” to himself of four illegally annexed regions of Ukraine.

The last 12 months could have been the greatest in Putin’s fully-lived life, but it is year that has not quite gone to plan.

When he threw Europe into chaos after launching his war against Ukraine in February, the Russian president believed his “special military operation” could be achieved in a week.

Now, more than 220 days into a seven-day war, Putin is grappling with several major problems.

The annexed land is being clawed back mile-by-mile by Ukraine, bodies of his soldiers being found on trees as his forces flee from the frontline, and hundreds of thousands of his countrymen leaving Russia in a mass exodus following a mobilisation order.

Perhaps not the birthday presents the president wished for.

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Rather than intimidating and all-powerful, he seems isolated and as he threatens nuclear war, saying he was “not bluffing” in his warnings. Meanwhile, his own officials have insisted Russia will keep clear of using weapons of mass destruction, as foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Russia “remains committed” to never allowing an atomic war.

He even had to admit mistakes were made in the mobilisation after thousands of Russians were sent home because they were not fit to fight.

Meanwhile, his war rival appears stronger than ever as Volodymyr Zelensky, 44, pushes Ukraine closer into achieveing Nato membership, rallying his country nightly with his consistent video address.

The Ukrainian army has unleashed a broad counteroffensive in the south, capturing a string of villages on the western bank of the Dnieper River and advancing toward the city of Kherson.

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Ukrainian gains in the Kherson region followed relentless strikes on the two main crossings over the Dnieper that made them unusable and forced Russian troops on the western bank of the Dnieper to rely exclusively on pontoon crossings, which also have been repeatedly hit by the Ukrainians.

Phillips P. O’Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews, predicted more Russian failures in Kherson, noting that it’s “hard to stabilise a line when your logistics are stretched, your troops are exhausted and your opponent is much, much smarter”.

Off the battlefield, there are a string of embarassing problems for Putin’s birthday week. There have been whispers, but no more, of opposition to the all-powerful leader. Even if that may be wishful Western thinking, much like the ill-health rumours in some corners, it is clear from street protests that the war is not universally popular in Russia.

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Elsewhere, reports have emerged of 700,000 Russians fleeing the country following the president’s partial mobilisation order. Again, Kremlin official Dmitri Peskov dismissed the figures saying “they shouldn’t be taken seriously”.

But the Kremlin spokesman could not back up his refutation with any figure of his own, admitting: “I don’t have exact figures, but of course they are far from what’s being claimed there.”

Many people of Putin’s age might be thinking about scaling down but that is unlikely in his case.

It remains to be seen how - or where - he will celebrate his 71st birthday.