More than 8 million refugees to flee Ukraine this year, UN estimates

The UN refugee agency (UNHCR) has said it is expecting some 8.3 million people to flee Ukraine this year, revising up its previous projection of refugees driven abroad by Russia’s war.

UNHCR spokesperson Shabia Mantoo said that more than 12.7 million people had fled their homes since Russia invaded Ukraine two months ago, including 7.7 million people displaced internally and more than 5 million who have fled over borders.

With a population of around 44 million, this means over a tenth of the Ukrainian population has left the country in about two months.

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“The scale of the crisis, definitely the rapidity of people fleeing, we have not seen in recent times,” Ms Mantoo said on Tuesday.

Syria remains the biggest current refugee crisis in the world, with 6.8 million people having fled, she added.

The UN agency had previously planned for some 4 million refugees in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but this was surpassed last month.

According to the latest update from UNHCR, more than half of the total - around 2.8 million - fled at least at first to Poland, where they are eligible for national ID numbers that entitle them to work, to free health care, schooling and bonuses for families with children.

It comes as UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres said in Moscow on Tuesday that conditions for a ceasefire in Ukraine should be created as soon as possible.

“We are extremely interested in finding ways in order to create the conditions for effective dialogue, create the conditions for a ceasefire as soon as possible, create the conditions for a peaceful solution”, Mr Guterres said at a meeting with Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov.

Mr Guterres was later due to meet president Vladimir Putin.

Meanwhile in Germany, the United States has gathered 40 nations to discuss plans to delivery arms to Ukraine in its fight against Russia.

US defence secretary Lloyd Austin hosted the event at Ramstein Air Base following a trip to Kyiv where he pledged additional military support to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky's war effort, which is at a crossroads.

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“As we see this morning, nations from around the world stand united in our resolve to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia's imperial aggression,” Mr Austin said at the start of talks.

“Ukraine clearly believes that it can win, and so does everyone here.”

US Army general Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, cautioned that Ukraine needed more security assistance - now - to help it defend against an unfolding and potentially decisive Russian onslaught in the east. He said the coming weeks were “critical.”

“Time is not on Ukraine's side,” Mr Milley said during closed-door remarks provided to reporters traveling with him. “The outcome of this battle, right here, today, is dependent on the people in this room.”

Mr Milley added: “The Ukrainians will fight. We need to make sure they have the means to fight”

Driven back by Ukrainian forces from a failed assault on Kyiv in the north, Moscow has redeployed troops into the east for a ground offensive in two provinces known as the Donbas.