Turkish strikes hammer 40 Assad regime positions in deadly new Syria escalation

A deadly confrontation between Turkish troops and regime forces in Syria has threatened to unravel a delicate detente brokered by Russia, and add a new dimension to the already calamitous nine-year Syrian war.

On Monday, Turkey’s armed forces hammered at 40 military positions held by Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad in the northwest of the country and as far east as Ain al-Issa, north of Raqqa, following an attack on a Turkish outpost that killed five soldiers and a civilian.

Turkey claimed to have killed up to 35 Syrian government troops in howitzer artillery fire and F-16 airstrikes. It described the violence as retaliation for the attack on one of its outposts in Idlib province, the war-ravaged corner of the country where rebels have for years been battling the Assad regime. Turkey has also dispatched half a dozen military convoys into northwest Syria to bolster its positions, and resupplied allied Syrian rebel fighters with fresh ammunition and other weaponry, said a military expert.

“Those who test Turkey’s determination regarding Syria’s Idlib with such treacherous attacks will realise their mistake,” Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan told reporters before boarding a plane and departing for Ukraine.

Mr Erdogan said Turkey had warned Russia to keep its forces away from the ongoing operation, which appeared to extend along the M4 highway that is the strategic thoroughfare for northern Syria.

Turkey’s defence minister Hulusi Akar and other military commanders were heading to the Syrian frontier to assess the confrontation, the official Anadolu news agency reported. At least nine Turkish military personnel were also injured in the initial attack, west of the disputed rebel-held town of Saraqeb.

“The Turks are now aiming to redraw the map of control,” said Nawar Oliver, a Syria military specialist at the Omran Institute, an Istanbul think tank, describing the offensive. “This is a mechanism to create a new area of control, to set new boundaries.”

Russia’s ministry of defence accused Turkey of triggering the confrontation by “advancing” its forces within Syria without notifying Moscow, suggesting the initial Syrian fire was accidental.

But the direct attack on the Turkish military by Syrian regime forces and Ankara’s continuing counterstrike amounted to a serious breakdown in Russian efforts to mediate between the various competing forces in Idlib province and elsewhere in Syria through a series of talks involving Moscow, Ankara and Tehran that began in Sochi in 2018 and are described as the Astana process.

“I don’t want to describe it as the collapse of Astana, but it’s one of the biggest roadblocks that Astana is facing,” said Mr Oliver. “Astana is in a major crisis.”

The latest violence comes as international attention shifts away from Syria, with the US administration of Donald Trump removing troops from the country in a development that may have altered the Kremlin’s calculations.

“The Russian side has seen the cost of a military solution in Idlib is less than the cost of a political solution,” said Omer Ozkizilcik, a Syria expert at Seta, a think tank affiliated with the Turkish government. “They have sensed a decreasing interest of western states to take a position on Syria, and are counting on the growing military momentum of the Syrian regime.”

Idlib province, on the Turkish border, has long been a flashpoint. Tens of thousands of Syrians in rebel-controlled stretches of the country have relocated to Idlib over the years as part of deals brokered by the United Nations and other mediators.

Under the terms of Astana, Turkey established a dozen observation points throughout a so-called de-escalation zone within Idlib to enforce what were meant to be various ceasefires.

Arguing “terrorist” groups were harbouring inside the de-escalation zone, Russia, the Assad regime and Iranian-backed armed groups have repeatedly violated the truces in a quest to reconquer the country.

In recent days, aid organisations including Doctors Without Borders have accused Russian and regime forces of launching airstrikes at schools and clinics in what appears to be an all-out effort to terrorise the civilian population into fleeing from one of the last few rebel-controlled areas of Syria.

On Sunday, Russian jets bombed positions in al-Bab, well within a Turkish-controlled belt of Syria designated a “safe zone” by Ankara. Turkey hopes to resettle some of the 3.5 million Syrian refugees sheltering within its borders to al-Bab.

“The Russians have a set of goals,” said Mr Oliver. “It’s obvious they are trying to achieve those set of goals at any cost, including causing the deaths of civilians, causing civilians to flee their homes, and even straining already fragile relations with the Turks.”

Russia and Syrian regime forces have long counted on Mr Erdogan’s hesitance to become further mired in Syria, where Ankara already controls a buffer zone along its southern frontier and battles Kurdish-led fighters associated with the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK.

But the killing of Turkish forces and the televised footage in recent days of tens of thousands of displaced Syrians flocking towards the Turkish frontier have given Ankara the domestic political backing for escalating the fight against the Assad regime, say experts.

Syrian refugees have transformed parts of Turkish cities and towns, stirring up nativist hostility to the newcomers and damaging Mr Erdogan’s domestic political prospects.

“The Turks have to deal with refugee flows which they see as a matter of national security,” said Mr Ozkizilcik.

The confrontation between Assad’s forces and Turkey shows the limits of Russia’s attempts to insert itself in the Middle East to bolster its status as a kingmaker in Syria, Libya and other conflicts.

Unlike the US, Moscow enjoys cordial relations with almost all the region’s rivals, including Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. But it’s a highly fraught diplomatic balancing act that has shown strains.

“Russia cannot keep both Syria and Turkey happy,” said Mr Ozkizilcik.