Why is Putin changing the constitution?

This week, Vladimir Putin is sending Russians to the polls to vote on constitutional amendments that will, among other things, allow him to stay on in power after term limits expire in 2024.

The vote is extraordinary in so many respects. It is being pushed in the middle of a pandemic – the election officials working in hazmat suits is evidence enough that things aren’t entirely safe. It is spread over an unprecedented seven days – a reflection of the public’s lack of enthusiasm to vote.

It is also legally unnecessary, with the new constitution already approved by parliament, signed off by the president, and even available to buy in bookshops across the country.

Up until this year, Mr Putin said he had no plans to rewrite Russia’s basic law, describing it on multiple occasions as the basis of political stability. “If I considered a totalitarian or authoritarian regime preferable, I’d change the constitution,” he said in his 2013. “It would be easy to do.”

So what made him change his mind in 2020? And why is he pushing on it so hard now?

The first thing to say is the project itself is more than just a power grab – it is more complicated than that, and it seems to have been largely improvised.

Leaving aside the presidential term reset for a moment, constitutional proposals have gone through at least three iterations, with key elements of the original plan announced on 15 January now redundant.

The first version sketched a rebalancing of power from the president to parliament and other beefed-up state organs. Elements of the proposal were subsequently walked back, with presidential prerogative returning in important areas. New checks and balances, but fortified by locks, bolts, trapdoors, and dungeons, if you will.

The next set of edits introduced populist amendments such as recognising only heterosexual marriage, indexing of pensions, and other social provisions. It was the sugar to sweeten the main pill, which appeared around this same time: the proposal to reset presidential terms, and allow Putin to govern until 2036.

Crucially, there were far easier ways for Mr Putin to stay in power. Some analysts believe the complicated, impromptu nature of the president's eventual proposal stems from it being, a), an attempt to break free of obligations to his inner circle while, b), guarding against possible future moves against him.

Usually, it’s wise to assume Kremlin policy is not wholly or even primarily directed by Putin. Not so here. This project is personal. It came from his own pen, and reportedly came as a surprise to his own team. The rush to get the vote on is also coming directly from the president’s office.

Politically, psychologically and emotionally, Putin is casting the vote as a test of his legitimacy. And bureaucrats understand that means more than 65 per cent voting yes.

In a totally honest system, the president might find himself in a tight spot, with popularity ratings at historic lows following a dreadful few months of absent Covid-19 crisis management. According to the Levada Centre, Russia’s last remaining independent pollsters, Putin’s rating is about 30 percentage points down from 2015 highs.

But Russia’s well-oiled electoral machine will surely give him the numbers he needs – by means foul and fair. When it does, history will likely look back on this week as a watershed moment. Day-to-day, of course, little changes. Vladimir Putin was in charge, is in charge, and will remain in charge. New words on paper mean little in a system dominated by informal rules.

The departure is, instead, in a change of atmosphere and those informal rules. It is the birth of Putin as the Father of the Nation. The reincarnation of the state as a fully personalised government, made for Putin alone.

The new constitutional settlement will almost certainly remain relevant for as long as Russia’s longtime leader stays alive. After that, all bets are off. Whatever new structures of power or term limits the document prescribes, the tactics used to bring it about can equally make it invalid.

If Putin can rip up the rule book, or "reset" rules so they do not count for him, anyone else who comes after him can do so too.