Navalny poisioning: West taking united action against Russia looks distant as US drags its feet

The last time that Germany accused the Kremlin of illicit acts, the head of the Russian parliament’s foreign affairs committee, Leonid Slutsky, decried it as “another example of global fake stories”, pointing to the poisoning of Sergei and Yulia Skripal as “a classic example of this”.

Slutsky made these remarks three months ago when Berlin said it was seeking European Union sanctions after new evidence had emerged of Moscow’s alleged culpability in the hacking of the German parliament in June 2015.

“This is a kind of post-pandemic cold shower, an attempt to return to square one in the western world, where Russia was accused of all sins absolutely undeservedly, based purely on conjecture”, he said.

He went on to warn that “if Berlin is truly considering some sanctions, this would be an ill-advised and destructive step, an artificial irritant in our relations”.

Now Germany and Russia are once again in confrontation after Berlin announced that there was “unequivocal proof” that Alexei Navalny, a prominent critic of Vladimir Putin, had been the victim of poisoning with novichok, and that Angela Merkel’s government would be seeking support from Nato and EU allies to hold Moscow to account.

Scientists from Porton Down, the UK’s defence research laboratory, have been helping German medical staff at the Charite Institute who treated Navalny after he arrived from Russia in a coma. Advice had been sought after early signs that the poisoning had similarities with the Salisbury attack.

The British foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, said: “The Russian government must tell the truth about what happened to Navalny. We will work closely with Germany, our allies and international partners to demonstrate that there are consequences for using banned chemical weapons anywhere in the world.” The British health secretary, Matt Hancock, added that the UK will “stand ready to offer all the support that’s available to help Germany, to investigate and take action as necessary”.

It remains unclear, however, what exactly that action will be.

Following the Salisbury assassination attempt, the UK persuaded allied states to expel 87 Russian diplomats – 60 of them from the US – in what was the largest punitive diplomatic action since the Second World War. That, however, came after British officials, led by Sir Mark Sedwill, the cabinet secretary and national security adviser, had presented evidence from the investigation carried out by the security and intelligence agencies and the police.

Russia has, of course, rebutted the claims that Navalny was poisoned. The Kremlin’s chief spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, said that the Russian government had not received any information from Germany to prove that novichok had been administered.

There have been strong criticisms of Moscow from Nato and the EU. The president of the European commission, Ursula von der Leyen, denounced the “despicable and cowardly” poisoning and said those responsible should be brought to justice. The French foreign minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, said that “given Navalny’s political status in Russia, the attack against him raises serious questions. It is the responsibility of the Russian authorities to respond to them.” Nato’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, spoke of the “shocking” use of the nerve agent and demanded a thorough investigation by Moscow.

Navalny is a Russian citizen and his alleged poisoning took place in Siberia. Western officials acknowledge that Russia cannot be forced to carry out an investigation into what happened to him, and the chances of Moscow agreeing to an international inquiry on Russian soil are remote.

It also remains to be seen how much actual appetite there is for concerted international action against Russia – especially from the current US administration.

The White House has called the attack “completely reprehensible”. But Donald Trump has yet to personally condemn what took place. It’s worth recalling that he claimed to have been misled by his officials into expelling such a large number of Russian diplomats following the Salisbury attack.

On Wednesday, the US deputy secretary of state, Steve Beguin, confirmed that talks had been held between western allies over Navalny. “We find the reports of Mr Navalny’s poisoning to be credible. It is completely unacceptable that this should happen to a leading democracy campaigner,” he told journalists.

However, Beguin also pointed out that the US was seeking to avoid a confrontation with Russia over the crisis in Belarus where the president, Alexander Lukashenko, continues to face massive protests. Beguin repeatedly stressed that Belarus was not a “west vs east” issue. The White House administration is likely to consider what impact taking action on Navalny will have on its broader strategy on Russia.

The US may also question why allies should agree to sanctions against Russia while Merkel is adamant in pressing on with the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project with Russia. President Trump has repeatedly criticised the project – the only bit of strong and consistent criticism he has directed against Russia since being in office – claiming that it will give Moscow too much control over energy supplies.

Joe Biden, on the other hand, has directly accused the Russian government of carrying out the attack. “Once again, the Kremlin has used a favourite weapon – an agent from the novichok class of chemicals – in an effort to silence a political opponent,” he said. “It is the mark of a Russian regime that is so paranoid that it is unwilling to tolerate any criticism or dissent.”

Biden condemned Trump for not publicly speaking out against the poisoning. “His silence is complicity. As president, I will do what Donald Trump refuses to do: work with our allies and partners to hold the Putin regime accountable for its crimes,” said the Democratic challenger.

One will have to see whether Biden’s words translate into action if he gets to the White House. How the Navalny affair unfolds, like so much else in the world, will depend on the US presidential election, the most crucial in recent times, in November.