Why Netanyahu is the real winner in Israel’s power-sharing deal

The “magician” has done it again.

Storming back from the brink of defeat, Benjamin Netanyahu - Israel’s longest-serving prime minister – appears to have secured his throne.

This is despite failing to win a majority of seats across three separate elections in under a year. This is despite being unable to form a coalition government twice. This is despite being indicted across three corruptions cases (on charges he denies).

This is even despite the fact that the very man - Benny Gantz – now tasked with keeping him in power for the next three years, leads the “Blue and White” party whose raison d’être since its formation last February was to oust Netanyahu because of the graft charges against him.

On Monday, night news broke Mr Netanyahu and Mr Gantz, the country’s ex-army chief, would join forces to form a three-year “national emergency government” to prevent another merry-go-round of elections and allow the authorities to tackle the deadly coronavirus.

In the deal, Mr Netanyahu would remain prime minister until October 2021, before Gantz (initially acting as a deputy prime minister) would succeed him and they would switch roles.

The largest – and so possibly most expensive – cabinet in Israel’s history, eventually consisting of a staggering 36 ministers, will be divided between the two leader’s parties and their allies.

The focus will be on the pandemic, the agreement states. For the first six months, the only legislation the government can put before the parliament must be related to fighting the spread of the coronavirus.

But for all of Netanyahu’s and Gantz’s bluster about “saving” Israel from a fourth election, and uniting the country in a global crisis, there was one clear outcome: this was a personal victory for Netanyahu or “Bibi” as he is nicknamed.

Even if he is no longer “flying solo” as Israeli journalist Chemi Salev put it, and even if he has to coordinate with an arch-rival, in the aggregate he has secured his main demands.

“Gantz is now Bibi’s bodyguard,” said Anshel Pfeffer, a British-Israeli journalist and biographer of Netanyahu, describing the agreement as another of Netanyahu’s “survival tricks”.

“It means Gantz, who spent the last year campaigning to replace Netanyahu for being unworthy due to the indictments, is now going to have to spend the next 18 months guaranteeing Netanyahu’s leadership to ensure he gets his turn in office.”

“And even after that when Gantz takes over he will have to safeguard Netanyahu’s position, as Netanyahu has an alliance behind him that makes up three-quarters of the [government] coalition.”

“Netanyahu will remain the most powerful person in Israel”.

The language of the deal – dense, confusing and at times fraught – states no deputy prime minister can be removed from office if they are indicted or even convicted, as is the case with regular ministers. Instead, they can only be removed when all appeal processes are exhausted, a privilege reserved for a premier.

In this vein, the weeks of bitter negotiations to reach Monday’s deal had reportedly stalled over Mr Netanyahu’s insistence on sweeping more control of judicial appointments. It came amid fears from critics he was trying to evade prosecution: a point the prime minister vehemently denies.

Mr Gantz’s Blue and White party and their allies have been granted the justice ministry portfolio in the deal, which for Mr Netanyahu’s opponents will be a welcome move.

But other parts of the agreement say Mr Netanyahu will be able to veto the appointments of the next attorney general and state prosecutor. The committee to appoint judges will have members of his Likud party on it.

While this will not see his trial cancelled, it will give him some control over key appointments only strengthening his position during the legal proceedings, Mr Pfeffer said.

The other thorny issue – and possible loss for Mr Gantz - concerns the controversial plan to immediately annex swathes of the occupied West Bank an action laid out in Donald Trump’s 2019 divisive peace plan for the region.

It was one of Netanyahu’s chief elections promises and according to this deal will likely be rammed through over the summer.

The unilateral annexation of any parts of Palestinian territory is illegal under international law. Outside of the US and Israel is it widely seen as an obstacle to peace and a two-state solution to the Israeli Palestinian conflict.

Mr Gantz has repeatedly promised to make any act of annexation conditional on “international consent” which the deal does not deliver.

In confusing language, the agreement talks only of “international discussion” and securing the US’s blessing. It gives Mr Gantz no veto power to stop an annexation bill from being presented to the parliament.

“Annexation has nothing to do with the coronavirus but yet the deal explicitly states it can be promoted from as early as 1 July, meaning within two months this could happen as long as Trump plays along,” said Tal Schneider, diplomatic and political correspondent at Israeli daily Globes.

“It seems they were concerned that people from Blue and White might obstruct and so the document says if the prime minister wants to bring annexation legislation to parliament it can be done via Likud MPs as a private (rather than a government) bill.”

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In short this means annexation can be “legislated fast”.

Schneider raised further concerns around clauses which stipulate that if the Supreme Court rules against Mr Netanyahu forcing him to step down, rather than Mr Gantz or anyone else taking over, the action has to trigger a fourth election.

“It sets it up that everyone will blame the Supreme Court for yet another round of elections. Instead of saying they’re doing justice, people will blame them for the next vote,” Schneider added.

That said the deal is not all victories for the prime minister.

This document marks the first time Mr Netanyahu has signed a document stating he will step down as prime minister. He will have to share power with a staunch rival. The government, a sprawling alliance now containing centrist figures, is no longer the pro-Bibi ultra-right religious-nationalist body it once was.

For a man in power since 2009, who has survived the seemingly impossible and carved such a deep niche for himself in the world, that is a big moment.