‘All eyes on Rome’: Italy goes to the polls as anxious Europe watches on

Italy’s voters will select a new government this weekend, and their choice of prime minister could have major repercussions for the rest of Europe.

It seems almost certain that voters will elect the first far-right leader of the post-Second World War era – and the first woman to lead an Italian government.

Giorgia Meloni heads the Brothers of Italy party, and has formed a three-party alliance with two prominent political veterans, Matteo Salvini of the League, and former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, of Forza Italia, who has re-emerged as a central figure on the country’s political stage even though he turns 86 next week.

Latest polls suggest Meloni’s Brothers of Italy could claim as many as 25 per cent of the votes in Sunday’s election, making it the largest party. This would mark a huge increase in support, after the party took around 4 per cent at the 2018 election.

But although her party is likely to win the most votes, given the fractured state of Italy’s politics, no single party stands much chance of winning enough seats to govern alone – which is where the alliance with Salvini and Berlusconi comes in.

Much of the discussion outside Italy about the right-wing alliance set to rule the country has concentrated on Brothers of Italy’s connections with the Mussolini family, and what a coalition with Salvini and Berlusconi, two people who have openly supported Vladimir Putin, could mean for the West’s alliance with Ukraine.

Meloni has sought to reassure European leaders that she supports the status quo in respect of the current war, but there is anxiety that a new far-right administration could lead Italy to move politically towards Hungary and Poland.

Cracks have emerged after Berlusconi said this week that Putin had been “pushed” into the war on Ukraine. His comments are likely to concern Western allies. “All eyes are on Rome right now,” one EU official said.

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After a victory for Sweden’s nationalists, there is concern in Brussels, Paris and Berlin about a “populist front” being formed that could block EU decision-making as the bloc seeks to stave off recession and shield households from inflation.

“It is worrying that a founding member of the EU is in such a situation. It is a threat to the EU and to Italy,” said Rolf Mutzenich, a lawmaker in German chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party.

German magazine Stern filled its front page with a picture of Meloni, captioned “The most dangerous woman in Europe”.

French president Emmanuel Macron has privately told EU officials he is concerned about a Meloni victory, according to sources aware of the conversation. When asked in public, Macron has expressed optimism about Europe’s relations with Italy.

Meanwhile, supporters of Hungary’s nationalist prime minister Viktor Orban see in Meloni an opportunity for Budapest to gain a new ally in its battle with the EU executive.

“Orban will probably be able to count on the support of Italy in rule-of-law disputes in the EU,” said Zoltan Kiszelly, an analyst at the pro-Hungarian government think tank Szazadveg.

But in Italy itself, discussion about Rome-born Meloni is less concerned with the international ramifications of her victory than it is with the matter of what she can do for ordinary Italians, who, like many across Europe, are struggling to get by in the face of a cost of living storm.

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Meloni’s anti-immigration stance has helped her to win support, as has her promotion of traditional family values. But her pledges to introduce tax cuts and help for the poorest are what seem to have worked with voters. She has also promised to promote fiscal prudence.

Meloni may have more immediate concerns after Sunday, though, if she wants to secure her place in history as the country’s first female prime minister.

It may take weeks before a coalition government is actually established, and there are already stories of splits between the three big players, as well as speculation that Salvini and the wily Berlusconi could manoeuvre to stop Meloni becoming PM.