Ireland election: Referendum on border ‘inevitable’, says ex-premier after Sinn Fein surge

A referendum on Irish unification looks “inevitable” within the next decade, a former Taoiseach has said, following electoral success for Sinn Fein in the Republic.

Bertie Ahern, who oversaw the signing of the Good Friday Agreement, said a so-called border poll was probably at least five years away but would happen.

“I think a border poll is inevitable. If you ask me when that is, I think it’s probably five years off at least,” he told the BBC.

“I think the Sinn Fein position is it should be held within five years. So let’s say we are talking about it being five years off, I do not think you are going to get the circumstances where it would become a condition of government that it has to be held in the short term. He added: “But it will be inevitable over this decade.”

With results still being counted across Ireland, Sinn Fein looks to have topped the popular vote for the first time in modern history. The left-wing republican party, which gained seats on the back of support from younger voters, appealed to those concerned about Ireland’s housing crisis and healthcare. Speaking elsewhere Mr Ahern said Sinn Fein has “the right to first call” in attempting to form a government because of its victory in the popular vote.

He told public broadcaster RTE that the centre parties “don’t have the numbers” to form a government.

The party’s leader Mary Lou McDonald has said she hopes to lead a government without Fine Gael or Fianna Fail, the duopoly that has dominated Irish politics for nearly a century.

But whether an administration can be formed depends on her ability to attract the support of smaller parties like the Greens, Labour, the Social Democrats, and People Before Profit.

The final tally for these parties is yet to be known, with counting still continuing across the country for second preference votes.

Sinn Fein won the first preference popular vote with 24.5 per cent, up 10.7 per cent, while Fianna Fail came second with 22.2 per cent, down 2.1 per cent.

Fine Gael won 20.9 per cent, down 4.6 per cent. The Greens managed 7.1 per cent, up 4.4 per cent, while other parties and independents accumulated around 24 per cent of the vote.

Despite the victory in the first preference popular vote, Sinn Fein may not come top in seats because it did not field as many candidates as the other parties, and is controversial with some voters, who may be less likely to lend it their second and third preferences.