‘The result is already known’: Hong Kongers vote in a no surprise election

For the first time in more than two years, Hong Kongers headed to the polls on Sunday for the legislative council election. However, several things have changed in the former British colony since the last election in November 2019.

This will be the first election since the government imposed a controversial national security law last July, and unlike previous years, most of the pro-democracy political parties didn’t nominate any candidate in this election. The security law, which criminalises many acts of dissent, is being implemented alongside what pro-democracy activists described as more stringent rules to wipe out any “anti-China” element.

Additionally, dozens of pro-democracy politicians who were supposed to be featured in this delayed election are now detained, with others being disqualified or being in exile. Following an overhaul of the electoral system that was passed by China’s National People’s Congress in March, only 20 out of the 90 seats in the legislative council will now be directly elected by Hong Kong voters.

The rest of the seats will be chosen by an election committee made up of pro-Beijing figures. With the strict candidacy vetting process, this election is being described as a “patriots-only” election.

“The previous Legco elections in Hong Kong were not democratic but they were Hong Kong elections,” said Steve Tsang, a political scientist at SOAS, University of London. “They were competitive within the limited framework on what was allowed in the system. The election this weekend in Hong Kong will be an election with Chinese characteristics.”

Tsang says the result of the election has been known or pre-approved by the Chinese Communist Party, and it will deliver an outcome that’s “exactly what the Communist Party would like”.

“It is not something you will discover in elections in Europe or North America,” he told The Independent.

Others say with the stringent vetting mechanism, there will be no more opportunity for “authentic” pro-democracy politicians to run the future elections in Hong Kong. “This election will not be supported by Hong Kong people and it’s really illegitimate in a way that I believe the turnout rate will be really low, compared with the 2019 District Council election,” said Sunny Cheung, an exiled Hong Kong activist and one of the winners of the legislative council primary election held by the pro-democracy camp in 2020.

Cheung and other overseas activists have been calling on people in Hong Kong to boycott the election by either not coming out to vote or casting a blank ballot as a sign of defiance.

“Our call for boycott with blank votes is really sending a strong signal to the public in Hong Kong that we shouldn’t endorse this election and this is what we called a silent resistance,” Cheung told The Independent.

“Personally, I would prefer people to stay at home because I think an unprecedented low turnout rate can be really influential and really profound in a way that it will let more people know that so many people disapprove of this kind of election and they disapprove of this latest political reform,” he added.

However, days after overseas activists began to call on Hong Kong people to boycott the election, at least four people have been arrested in the city for allegedly inciting others to cast blank votes or not vote in the election, including a former student union president of the Chinese University of Hong Kong.

Bernard Chan, convenor of Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam’s Executive Council, says that it is potentially illegal if people in Hong Kong are inciting others to boycott the election on Sunday. “If there is evidence that you actually have a plan to urge people not to vote, that can be potentially an illegal act under the law in Hong Kong,” he told The Independent.

“Voting is not mandatory in Hong Kong so people have the choice to choose, but that doesn’t include if you are urging and inciting people not to vote,” he added.

Chan also rejects the claim that it is a “patriot-only” election, as he points out that some candidates who view themselves as pro-democracy activists are still featured in the election. “There is a former colleague of mine who still calls herself a pro-democracy activist, and she is now actively running in one of the constituencies,” he said.

“What you don’t see are some of the more recognisable faces that used to be in the opposition party. Those you don’t see this time because many of them were sentenced by the court for the violation of the law in Hong Kong,” he added.

Chan claims that the Chinese government encourages pro-democracy parties in Hong Kong to nominate candidates in the legislative council election, but those parties choose not to. “They choose not to rather than they are not allowed to,” he said.

“There are people who hold different views from the government that will be featured in the election. I think there is a red line and it can’t be crossed. As long as you don’t cross the red line, everyone from different spectrums can run in the election,” he added.

Despite the seemingly confident response from Chan, polls seem to be suggesting that the turnout rate of Sunday’s election is going to be the lowest in years. One poll by the Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute suggests that only around 51 per cent of respondents plan to vote and nearly half of them say they don’t find any candidates worth supporting.

Sunny Cheung thinks that the main reason that could cause a low turnout rate is the lack of authentic pro-democracy candidates and the government’s aggressive campaign to attract people to come out and vote reflects their lack of confidence in the turnout rate.

“The government has been trying to mobilise people in different sectors to come out and vote,” he said. “Companies like KPMG have perks like an extra day off to employees who exercise their rights to vote on Sunday.”

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Earlier this week, officials of the Hong Kong government urged people to vote, claiming it is the “second important election after the government passed a series of electoral reforms” earlier this year.

In an interview with China’s state-run tabloid Global Times earlier this month, Hong Kong chief executive Carrie Lam said a low turnout rate will not mean anything, and it might even be indicating “public satisfaction with good governance”.

Regardless of the outcome of the election, Steve Tsang from SOAS thinks the international community should expect the new legislative council in Hong Kong to be like the National People’s Congress in China. “ How much credibility do you give the National People’s Congress? You don’t give much credibility to it.”

“You still recognise it as China’s legislature because formally, it is. You just don’t accept it as a democratically elected legislature. That’s all,” he added.