Some of world’s poorest countries won’t reach 20% vaccine coverage until early 2022, analysis finds

Some of the poorest countries in the world won’t have vaccinated 20 per cent of their respective populations against Covid-19 until early 2022, new analysis shows.

Experts have warned that the failure to equally distribute vaccine doses and ensure widespread coverage is endangering thousands of lives, and risks fuelling the emergence of new coronavirus variants which could prolong the pandemic.

As western nations race ahead with their rollouts, having secured an excess of supplies through bilateral deals with manufacturers, lower- and middle-income countries are facing lengthy waits to get their hands on the lifesaving Covid jabs.

Going by current vaccination rates, Paraguay, the Philippines, Iran, Myanmar, Namibia, Guinea, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Gabon, Macedonia and Saint Barthelemy will only have immunised 20 per cent of their populations by early 2022, according to science analytics company Airfinity.

Paraguay, one of the poorest and most unequal countries in Latin America, faces the longest wait. It won’t reach the 20 per cent figure until 18 August 2022. The Philippines, home to 108.1 million people, is set to reach this figure on 5 February of next year.

Other low- and middle-income countries, including Zimbabwe, Rwanda, Ghana, Togo, Malawi, Honduras and Burkina Faso, are expected to have rolled out vaccinations to 20 per cent of their populations by November or December this year, according to Airfinity’s analysis.

Efforts to roll out doses to the global south have been derailed by the recent export ban placed on the Serum Institute of India (SII), which has been licensed by AstraZeneca to produce a billion doses of its vaccine for distribution to poorer nations.

As India battles a devastating surge in cases, SII has been forced by the government to redirect its doses to the national population, leading to a significant reduction in available supplies for these low- and middle-income countries.

Last week, The Independent revealed that during March and April, roughly 90 million shots due to be funnelled into Covax – the global vaccine-sharing initiative – were held back by the SII.

“Intellectual property rules are restricting global vaccine production to the supply chains of just a few pharmaceutical companies, with a handful of licensing agreements with other producers like India’s Serum Institute,” said Nick Dearden, director of health campaign group Global Justice Now.

“That leaves low- and middle-income countries, who are dependent on charitable schemes like Covax, incredibly vulnerable to disruption in vaccine supply when a crisis like India’s breaks out.”

Global health campaigners and experts have warned that the failure to fairly share vaccines carries repercussions for the whole world.

“This is a global problem that will only be solved by us all working together and us all caring about what’s happening outside our own doorsteps,” said Stacey Mearns, a senior technical advisor for emergency health at the International Rescue Committee.

“I hope the world is waking up to this: we’re all in a chain in this pandemic and it will not be over until it’s over everywhere.

“The more we allow the virus to run rampant, the [more] variants we are going to see.”

Others have said that it’s not just doses that need to be shared. Will Hall, a global policy manager at Wellcome, said it was vital that poorer nations are also able to access treatments and diagnostic tests. “Vaccines are critically important but [we] need a whole suite of tools to tackle Covid,” he said.

Supplemental oxygen is required in 41 per cent of patients admitted to hospital with Covid-19, while only 2 per cent need mechanical ventilation, according to the British Medical Journal.

But in the global south, medical oxygen is frequently unavailable, as seen in India which has suffered from widespread shortages during its latest Covid surge.

These supply issues are endangering the lives of more than half a million Covid patients every day in the world’s poorest nations, research from Unitaid showed earlier this year.

The World Health Organisation’s Access to Covid-19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator was established to help develop and deliver the tests, treatments and vaccines needed to fight against Covid-19, but the initiative is short of $19bn in funding for 2021.

To compare, the world economy is facing a $28 trillion hit to economic activity over the next half-decade due to the pandemic, the International Monetary Fund said last year.

“In that context, they’re really tiny numbers to ensure the world gets back on track,” Mr Hall said.

“There is a really long way to go. And there is a risk that if we don’t see global leaders stepping up soon and funding this global initiative … that we continue to have the pandemic raging for longer.”