Why China is Australia’s number one suspect in campaign of ‘sophisticated’ cyber attacks

The Chinese government has been swift to deny that it was behind the sustained and wide-ranging cyber attack targeting the government, businesses and emergency services in Australia.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison blamed a “sophisticated state actor” for the attack but declined to name the state allegedly involved. But Australia’s intelligence agency as well as those of some other western states have privately stated that they believe Beijing was culpable.

Russia, North Korea and Iran have been among other countries which have been accused of illicit cyber operations, and even allies have carried out cyber espionage on each other. But, it is China which has the incentive for carrying out this campaign in Australia.

It is not known whether Australian, American and other intelligence agencies had tracked down a technical footprint tracing the operation to Beijing. It had been going on for months and thus this could well be the case.

But it is China’s motivation which mainly makes it the most likely suspect. For a period, Australian governments avoided antagonising China – which was becoming a highly lucrative export market – but Canberra had become more critical of late, taking steps that have led to anger in Beijing. For instance Australia, unlike Britain, has banned Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications company, from its 5G network.

Relations between the two countries plummeted and Beijing’s rage grew after Australia became one of the first countries to call for an international investigation into the spread of coronavirus in China, and said that the charge that the Chinese government hid information about the disease from the outside world needs to be examined.

The US administration has been vociferous in demanding Chinese accountability over Covid-19. But Canberra has been voicing concern about Beijing’s actions even as Donald Trump was sending 15 tweets in seven weeks praising China and Xi Jinping for its handling of the crisis as the pandemic was spreading internationally.

China has aggressively pursued a policy of disinformation, denying any subterfuge over coronavirus, and even claiming that the disease originated in Europe or the US. Australia has been specifically targeted for punitive economic sanctions with tariffs imposed on Australian barley, beef imports banned and Chinese citizens told not to travel to Australia for tourism or education.

The first salvo in denying responsibility for the attack came from China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian, held up as an example of Beijing’s new breed of “wolf warrior” combative diplomats. He had previously suggested that Covid-19 was planted in Wuhan by American soldiers taking part in the Military World Games last autumn, but also that the disease may have started in the west.

Mr Zhao focused on the role of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) in the claims of Chinese involvement in the cyber attacks. He said that the think tank was funded by US arms companies and complained that “it has been hyping up, or creating, all kinds of anti-China topics. The attacks and the blame coming from this institute against China is totally baseless and nonsense.”

The Chinese foreign ministry had criticised ASPI in the past for a report which accused the Chinese Communist Party’s United Front of neutralising opponents at home and spreading propaganda abroad.

Government officials in Australia and others abroad have made the same links between China and the cyber attacks. But picking out ASPI is an illustration of Beijing’s resentment of organisations which subject it to critical attention.

Questions can be asked about why Mr Morrison chose to announce the cyber attacks now when, according to the government’s own version of events, it has been going on for months. One clue could be the Australian Cyber Security Centre’s warning last week that hacking groups connected to China were seeking to steal research data on coronavirus.

The secret manoeuvres in the shadow of the pandemic look set to continue.