The war is between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The world is getting dragged in

For years, nations have sought to steer clear of the toxic melange of surging nationalism and age-old grievances festering in the southern Caucasus. Iran, Israel, Russia, United States and others attempted to maintain cordial ties with both Azerbaijan, a wealthy purchaser of weapons and exporter of natural gas, and Armenia, a major conduit to an influential and successful diaspora with ties to power across the world.  

But the recent eruption of fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia, described as some of the most fierce warfare in 30 years, has put the squeeze on world and regional powers attempting to maintain their distance from the conflict.  

The fighting is over the breakaway ethnic Armenian region of Nagorno-Karabakh. The hilly, landlocked stretch of land has been ruled as an Armenian protectorate since an early 1990s war, which left some 30,000 dead, even though it is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan.  

Scores of people, including civilians, have died on both sides of the conflict, which appears to be intensifying. At the heart of the dilemma for world capitals are potentially lucrative energy and weapons deals as well as diplomatic ties to a key region of the world.  

The biggest international loser in the conflict is likely Iran, which neighbours both Armenia and Azerbaijan and is close to the disputed enclave. Already reeling from US sanctions and security manoeuvres, the war next door puts unwelcome pressure on the leadership in Tehran, which has repeatedly called for a ceasefire and on Monday offered to host talks.  

“This is a potential political pandora’s box for the Iranians,” says Matthew Bryza, a former US envoy to Baku.  

Iran has voiced support for Azerbaijan’s claim to Nagorno-Karabakh, and even provided military support to Baku in the 1990s war. But, diplomatically, Iran today is far closer to Yerevan, which is part of a Kremlin-led alliance aligned with Tehran in the Levant. Iran counts Armenian communities in Syria and Lebanon as supporters of the so-called axis of resistance that includes Bashar al-Assad’s Damascus dictatorship and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah. Azerbaijani officials have called out Iran for allowing what they described as shipments of weapons to transit from its land borders and air corridors to Armenia.

In recent years, Tehran has also patched up long-strained ties with Baku, which US intelligence officials have used as a spying outpost on Iran.  

Making matters even more tricky for Tehran, a quarter of Iranians consider themselves ethnically Azeri, and the war is whipping up nationalistic fervour in the important cities which are their stronghold, including Tabriz and Orumieh and the capital, Tehran. Protests in support of Baku have broken among Azeris in nearly half a dozen major cities, likely rankling the leadership. And several mid-ranking Shia clergy in Iran have voiced support for Azerbaijan.

Meanwhile, Iran also hosts a sizable Armenian community, perhaps as many as 300,000. And in contrast to Azerbaijan, Armenia has welcomed Iranian tourists and business people over the years. Iran and Armenia are building a controversial hydroelectric project on the Aras River within occupied Azerbaijani territory.  

Iran appears sensitive to charges that it is supporting Armenia. Ali Akbar Velayati, a top adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, called on Armenia to return “the lands it has occupied from Azerbaijan” but also criticised the alleged deployment of Syrian rebel fighters in the conflict and called on both sides to enter into political negotiations. He also accused Turkey, Israel, and France of unwelcome interference in the conflict.  

The fighting has already spilled into Iran, with stray rockets and mortars landing on Iranian soil. Dozens of shells have struck villages in northwest Iran, causing minor injuries and property damage. With each passing day of the conflict, the dangers for Iran mount.  

“If Turkey has deployed [Syrian mercenary] forces near Iran’s border that’s very dangerous for Iran,” says Peyman Aref, a Brussels-based Iran analyst.  

Israel, too, finds itself in a bind. Azerbaijan is a customer of its advanced weaponry, including kamikaze drones which have been used to decimate Armenian armoured vehicles and anti-aircraft batteries as well as a vendor of energy supplies.  

“Israel considers Azerbaijan a strategic ally,” the journalist Anshel Pfeffer wrote in Ha’aretz.  “The kleptocracy on the Caspian is the source of much of the oil Israel purchases and, due to its geographic location, an extremely useful ‘backdoor’ to its neighbour Iran for intelligence and other clandestine purposes.”

But Armenia is also an ally of Israel. It has been one of the few countries in the world to move its embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, and the nations often find themselves aligned on diplomatic matters in Washington and at the United Nations. Last week, Armenia pulled its ambassador from Israel to protest its arms sales to Azerbaijan. Later the ambassador said that “Israel may halt its arms sales to Azerbaijan”, though he did not cite details.  

The United Kingdom and European countries have mostly stayed out of the fray. Anything beyond mild statements calling for peace can be risky. France, which is part of the Minsk group that has been attempting to resolve the conflict since the 1990s, was shouted down by both Ankara and Baku after the president, Emmanuel Macron, reiterated allegations that Syrian mercenaries fighters linked to Turkey have been deployed by Azerbaijan.  

“We regret that France jumped into this,” said Hikmat Hajiyev, an adviser to the government in Baku. “We have very serious questions about the honesty and impartiality of France.”

Russia, too, finds itself in a tough spot. As long as the Nagorno-Karabakh saga was a frozen conflict, the Kremlin could benefit from arms sales while its diplomats fed officials from both sides soothing but empty reassurances. But it now finds itself pulled into the battle as Armenia hits targets in Azerbaijan, pressuring Baku to respond in kind and thereby trigger a Kremlin defence pact with Yerevan.  

The escalating battle between the two former Soviet republics also endangers crucial energy infrastructure that includes networks pipelines and a nuclear power plant in Armenia. Baku on Tuesday accused Yerevan of targeting an oil pipeline that leads to Turkey.

There is clear Kremlin discomfort over the conflict and frustration in Moscow over the lack of international engagement. “It was needed for a long time; it is needed today,” Aleksandr Skakov, of the  Russian Academy of Sciences, was quoted as saying in the influential Izvestia daily. “The question is who will agree to send their mission to Karabakh. I’m afraid there won't be many who are willing to do that.”

Even taking clear sides in the conflict has costs. Turkey’s full-throated diplomatic and military support for Azerbaijan is already having consequences. This week fellow Nato partner Canada announced a suspension of arms export licenses to Ankara pending a review of its role in the Caucasus war.  

Perhaps the most perplexed player in the Caucasus is the US, which boasts strong ties and potential influence over both countries but has largely receded from any active role. Washington agreed to a joint statement with Russia and France calling for an end to the fighting, but has not been diplomatically engaged, according to current and former officials. Washington’s public statements so far sound disconnected from the passions aroused and complexities triggered by the conflict.

“We’ve urged everyone to just stay out of this,” US secretary of state Mike Pompeo told reporters last week.