What the Taliban’s victory in Afghanistan means for India

With the collapse of the Afghan government and the military takeover of the Taliban, the geopolitics of the region has been forever altered — with few relationships in South Asia transformed as “dramatically” as that of Afghanistan and India, experts say.

All neighbouring countries will be concerned by the spillover effects of a Taliban-led Afghanistan – even those with better ties to the Islamist group and who, like Pakistan, celebrated the events of last month. From heightened refugee flows and a scaled-up drug trade to the rise of known and emerging terror groups, all will be worried by the unstable situation.

But India has been one of Kabul’s closed regional partners for nearly 20 years since the US-led coalition last ousted a Taliban government, and has now been “dealt a really bad deal” by events to the north.

Having refused to even consider the question of engaging diplomatically with the Taliban while the military situation in Afghanistan remained uncertain, India has now had its first formal meeting with the group in Qatar. According to Delhi, the two sides discussed the safety of Indians left behind in Afghanistan.

But such hastily-arranged talks do not equate to lasting diplomatic engagement, and with the rise of the Taliban there are concerns that “there may soon not be a formal India-Afghanistan relationship at all”, says Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Asia programme at the Wilson Center in Washington.

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Kugelman says that India — up until now one of the top donors to Afghanistan —  had strong relationships with all recent non-Taliban governments. “Relations were strong on official but also people-to-people levels. There was ample goodwill toward Indians, who funded some of Afghanistan’s most visible development projects in recent years, such as a new parliamentary building and the Salma Dam,” he says.

Elizabeth Threlkeld, deputy director of the South Asia Program at the Stimson Center says that the loss of influence that India suffered over the past week cannot be compensated. She told the Independent: “Policymakers will face a difficult decision in whether and how to engage the ascendant Taliban in an attempt to regain a seat at the table, especially at a time when Pakistan’s strategy of supporting the Taliban seems to have paid off.”

There are also concerns about cross-border terrorism. Prof Mariam Mufti who specialises in the politics of South Asia and teaches at the University of Waterloo in Canada told the Independent: “When Taliban were in power from 1992 to 1996, they fostered anti-Indian terrorist organisations.” She says that the Taliban became a safe haven for organisations that then went on and caused havoc in Indian occupied territory.

In 1999, the Taliban also hijacked the Indian Airlines flight from Kathmandu, and “basically put India in a situation where they’d have to release Masood Azhar [founder of Jaish-e-Mohammed],” Prof Mufti adds, referring to the Pakistan-based jihadist group that is active in Kashmir. “India is scared of what the Taliban’s religious militancy can actually do in the region.”

This might also mean that India could lose its influence on Central Asia. Prof Mufti says: “China does not care about who the Taliban are and what the Taliban are interested in, and they have very, very deep pockets. China can continue to invest and continue to provide aid so it can actually get some other strategic benefits from the Taliban in Afghanistan.”

China and India are regional rivals, and the prospect of Beijing’s growing influence in central Asia with closer links to the Taliban — while it is already an ally of Pakistan — could pose significant problems. “India is interested in the resources of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, all the Central Asian republics because they are oil and gas-rich,” says Professor Mufti.

One of the biggest concerns India could have is that New Delhi is being pushed out of the region. And that doesn’t bode well if India wants to have a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council - a long held ambition.

Many are also concerned about cross-border terrorism. Mr Kugelman says: “The Taliban itself has parochial interests and only focuses its strategic goals on Afghanistan-related matters. It has ties to foreign countries and foreign terror groups, but it is firmly grounded in Afghanistan.”

Still, he says that the Taliban’s victory has had a major “galvanizing effect” on regional militants.

“This means that Kashmir-focused terror groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, inspired by the Taliban takeover, could be inspired to stage attacks in Kashmir.”

There is also the risk that Kashmiri militants, who may not be affiliated with LeT or JeM, could still be inspired by the Taliban triumph and driven to stage attacks. “The risk is that New Delhi, seeking to preempt potential attacks by emboldened militants in Kashmir, will stage new security crackdowns in the region that end up provoking the very violent uprisings that Indian officials seek to avoid,” says Mr Kugelman.

Meanwhile, India would be wise to maintain its wait and see approach, for now, South Asia politics analysts say. “If the Taliban can match their words with actions and demonstrate a more moderate approach to governance, there might be room for collaboration in the future,” says Ms Threlkeld. “While the Taliban are closely aligned with Pakistan, the group has shown a desire to diversify its regional contacts, in part, to minimize its dependency on Pakistan.”