Russia has invaded Ukraine – so what now?

So it has happened – the Russian Federation announced war against Ukraine and started full-scale military operations. In other terms, President Vladimir Putin has just declared a fratricide on Ukraine.

Moscow officially announced a "special military operation" to "demilitarise and denazify" Ukraine. In the Kremlin’s own words, this represents a legitimate defensive war aimed at avoiding a "humanitarian catastrophe" in Donbas. All of which, of course, is state-fabricated propaganda giving Moscow a convenient pretext to invade Ukraine once again.

The reality, however, is quite different than how Moscow presents it: there is now a large-scale conventional war in Europe. Russian artillery and airstrikes are for now concentrating on destroying key Ukrainian command and control military assets and civilian infrastructure in major urban centres. Columns of Russian troops and heavy equipment have also been moved in force into Ukrainian territory to prepare for a next phase.

Indeed, these initial strikes and military movements only represent what is referred to as the "initial period of war". A full-scale ground invasion of Ukraine is likely to follow in the coming days across several fronts: from the north-east at the border with Ukraine and through occupied Donbas; from the south in occupied Crimea; and from the north in legally "occupied" Belarus.

The goal will be to quickly seize territory in Ukraine and create a fait accompli, one battle at a time. The new military geography of Ukraine – namely where Putin will decide to stop – remains unknown, but Russian forces are unlikely to stop at the administrative borders of Donbas. A worst-case scenario would be the complete capture of Ukraine, which is not entirely excluded at this stage.

It is impossible to predict the Kremlin’s desired end goal – what success looks like for Moscow, as well as their war termination strategy – how the war will stop. A possibility is Russia imposing a form of regime change in Kiev while holding Ukraine at risk of continued occupation. It is important to recall Russia already invaded Ukraine in 2014 and has occupied Crimea ever since.

The next few days are going to be critical, especially because three broad factors are constraining Moscow’s timeline. First, the Ukrainian response – notably the ability of the Ukrainian armed forces to mount a rapid counter-offensive to protect their country. Second, Russian public sentiment regarding the war, and especially when planes full of dead soldiers will come back from the war front. Third, the scope and scale of the response of the international community.

No country can be complacent to what is unfolding: the war will redraw the maps of Europe, impact the security dynamic of the whole continent, and forever alter the rules-based international order. But I believe Ukraine will prevail. In the meantime, Ukrainians will require all the help they can get as well as a coherent and united response from us all against Moscow.

Mathieu Boulegue is a research fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House