The population boom is a success story, not a doomsday scenario

On 15 September this year, the world’s population will pass 8 billion. That’s the prediction by the United Nations in its new World Population Prospects 2022 that’s just been published.

Of course, it won’t be that particular day, for we can never know precisely how many people there are on the globe at any one time, but the general message stands: there are around 8 billion people in the world and the number is steadily climbing. It will go to around 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050, but after that, it will level off and be stable at around 10.4 billion by the end of this century.

These UN population projections are the gold standard in demography. I’m not sure about what might happen by 2100, but when they are looking 30 years ahead, they have been pretty much spot on. Back in 1991 when the world’s population was 5.3 billion, they expected it would grow to between 7.5 and 8 billion by 2020 – and it was 7.75 billion. That is a bullseye.

There are other headline-grabbing stories in the new study. One is that India will pass China as the world’s most populous nation next year, for its current population of 1,412 million is only just behind China’s 1,426 million. Another is that Nigeria will vie with the US to be number three behind India and China by 2050, for both are projected to have 375 million residents then.

Still another is that the Russian Federation’s present population of 145 million will fall to 132 million by 2050. And within Europe, the UK passes Germany to become Europe’s most populous country in 2084, when both countries will have 71.3 million people – by the end of the century the UK is projected to have 70.5 million, while Germany will be at 69.0 million.

If you want to dig deeper into the detailed projections for the different countries you can download data files showing these numbers. But, as I stress, don’t take the detail of these projections too seriously. The broad thrust is what matters.

And the broad thrust is that while the world’s population will continue to grow until the 2080s, that growth is already slowing and from then onwards it will level off. In other words, we will reach peak humankind in the final quarter of this century. However, within that overall level, the population balance of the world will shift away from an ageing Europe and Japan, and towards the youthful Indian sub-continent and particularly to Africa. The US ages too, but thanks to immigration, keeps a rising population right through to the end of the century, as Canada and Australia will, too.

These projections raise huge questions, which range from the straightforward, such as how the world will feed this many people, to the complex ones about policy, such as whether European nations should seek to increase birth rates and if so, how? For many people, the continued growth of the number of human beings this planet has to sustain will be a troubling prospect. But it is worth stressing, as the UN authors set out, some of the achievements of the recent past.

For example, they note: “Globally, life expectancy reached 72.8 years in 2019, an increase of almost 9 years since 1990. Further reductions in mortality are projected to result in an average longevity of around 77.2 years globally in 2050.” So global life expectancy will recover and start rising again, despite the blow from the pandemic, which cut it down to 71.0 years in 2021.

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I like the comment of Dr Natalia Kanem, executive director of the United Nations Population Fund, the UN’s sexual and reproductive health agency. Introducing this report, she said: “This is a success story, not a doomsday scenario. Our world, despite its challenges, is one where higher shares of people are educated and live healthier lives than at any previous point in history.

“Focusing exclusively on population totals and growth rates misses the point – and often leads to coercive and counter-productive measures and the erosion of human rights. In fact, people are the solution, not the problem. Experience shows that investing in people, in their rights and choices, is the path to peaceful, prosperous and sustainable societies.”

This is surely right. We should celebrate the progress that has been made in education, healthcare and so on, but also be aware of the need to invest in human capital so that the progress will continue. I think we also have to ask: “What is the alternative?”

At any rate, this research by the UN gives a basis both for cautious optimism about the future, but also a challenging “to do” list for the policymakers.

Hamish McRae’s new book, The World in 2050, is published by Bloomsbury