Planning reforms are not as unpopular with Tory voters as you might think

Tory WhatsApp groups are ablaze in the aftermath of the Chesham and Amersham by-election shock, with MPs demanding the death of the government’s planning reforms – one of the major issues up for debate at this election, along with the construction of the HS2 railway. “The concerns about planning and HS2 were loud and clear,” said Amanda Milling, co-chair of the Conservative Party. “I am in no doubt that Thursday’s result is a warning shot and we are listening.”

The truth is that there are more than a few senior and not-so-senior Conservatives who will be OK with sacrificing one constituency if it means the government’s extensive proposals to reform our archaic planning system are killed off as a result.

And extensive they are. The slate of changes unveiled by ministers last summer were ambitious in the extreme. Driven by a desire to do something about the atrophied state of housebuilding, the most radical proposal would see the country divided into zones, with some areas essentially designated as having pre-ordained permission. At this stage, local democratic control would switch to a debate about the “what” (aesthetics and architecture) and not “if” a development should happen or not.

The guiding principle of the changes is that if the housing market (which has essentially failed) is to be resuscitated and more young adults are to be able to afford to get a foot on the housing ladder, then the creaky planning system of multiple permission gates and appeals needs to be simplified.

Whatever you think of the government, it is a brave political strategy to take on this issue in the face of what would surely prove to be huge opposition from the Nimbyism of the True Blue Tory Home County heartlands.

However, despite the evidence on Thursday that the doom-mongers are right and that such reforms would be killed off by the powerful Nimby reflexes of Kent, Berkshire and the rest, I am not so sure.

Yes, the planning reform proposals will alienate some, but having run focus groups in these areas, talking to normal people (not local politicians or organisers), I believe the Nimby instinct is rather softer than people might think. Indeed, if the Conservatives learn to talk about planning reform in a different way – a human way, if you will – they could yet prove acceptable in Tunbridge and Whitney.

The truth of the matter is that in much of the south east many, many normal people have simply given up hope of ever buying their first house. In one village where I spoke to people, even ex-council houses now go for around £500,000. This not only has consequences for the young, but it also affects their families and their communities who – time and again – will tell you that their children or grandchildren have had to move away to buy a home and start a family.

These are people who understand that more housing needs to be built – and will support it if enough of it is genuinely affordable.

They are also interested in design. Not in an architectural way, but in the vernacular. It makes an enormous difference to their support for the idea of development if they feel that it is in keeping with where they live. Opposition to housebuilding softens markedly if people can be convinced that it won’t be hundreds of badly built red boxes scarring the landscape. Increasingly they also prefer to be reassured that new homes are environmentally sound too.

Finally – and importantly – voters need confidence that new housing won’t put extra pressure on local services. They worry – correctly – that too often developers throw up a new development without the GP surgeries, primary schools and transport infrastructure that an influx of new residents inevitably needs.

This is a big ask, I know, but if the Conservatives are serious about planning reform – and even as a non-Tory, I hope they are – then there is a way of selling it to their core voters in the South East. That is to say that their proposals will lead to an increased supply of affordable, aesthetically pleasing and well-resourced new homes for their kids to settle down in nearby and start families. After all, all grandparents want to live near their grandchildren.

Ultimately, as ministers survey the post by-election carnage, they should also remember another of the Conservative Party’s guiding principles: winning is all that matters. It might not feel like it right now, but planning reform ought to help them secure general elections, not lose them. As election after election has proved: driving up the rate of home-ownership nearly always drives up the Tory vote.