Oliver Dowden’s resignation is worse news for Boris Johnson than the double by-election defeat

The resignation of Oliver Dowden as Conservative Party chair is more significant than the party’s double defeat in Thursday’s by-elections in Tiverton and Honiton and Wakefield. It matters because someone in the cabinet has finally had the courage to stand up to Boris Johnson.

Dowden is a mild-mannered, self-effacing figure who never looked happy waging culture war from Tory HQ and who hoped to become education secretary. He was an effective backroom operator in Downing Street under David Cameron. That this ultimate loyalist pointedly pledged his loyalty to his party rather than Johnson in his unexpected resignation letter speaks volumes.

If the 148 Tory backbenchers who voted against Johnson in this month’s confidence vote had held fire until after the by-elections, they could have ousted him next week. But the coup never was a coup; it was individuals making their own minds up, making Johnson’s loss of seven out of 10 Tory backbenchers all the more remarkable. Only 32 Tories need to change sides to bring him down.

On a single day, the two by-elections blew out of the water Johnson’s case for staying on: only he can recreate the coalition in the red and blue walls that won him a thumping 80-seat majority at the 2019 election. Both walls are now at risk from a pincer movement by Labour and the Liberal Democrats in the north and south respectively.

Tiverton, which saw the biggest majority ever overturned in a by-election, shows that the Lib Dems are capable of winning over Labour voters as memories of their 2010-15 coalition with the Tories fade. That will send a shiver down the spines of many Tory MPs; it cannot be dismissed as the usual mid-term blues that afflict most governments. There are ominous echoes of the by-election setbacks John Major suffered before the Tories were routed at the 1997 election.

Crucially, we are seeing anti-Johnson tactical voting rather than the anti-Tory tactical voting – after the party lost its economic credentials – that played a big part in Tony Blair’s landslide. This time it’s personal. Both Tiverton and Wakefield voted leave six years ago. The Brexit magic isn’t working for Johnson any more.

The 12 per cent swing to Labour in Wakefield gives Keir Starmer a timely boost after another bout of internal grumbling about his performance. It shows Labour can regain its former red wall seats. But Labour does need to win over more 2019 Tory voters. For now, a hung parliament with Labour forming a minority government looks the most likely outcome at the next election.

Labour might not have enough in the bank if the Tories change their leader rather than sleepwalk to defeat under Johnson. I suspect they will eventually wake up. It’s too soon for the 1922 Committee to change the rule saying the party leader cannot be challenged for another 12 months. “We can’t move the goalposts every five minutes,” one MP told me. But next month’s elections to the committee’s 18-strong executive will probably underline that Johnson has lost the backing of his MPs. The breathing space after the last vote for Johnson to turn things round will be shorter after these dreadful by-election results.  I would expect another confidence vote in the autumn.

Today the prime minister promised to “listen” to voters, but his complacent response to the by-elections (blaming the cost of living crisis) and the confidence vote (bizarrely hailing it as a victory) shows he does not recognise that the problem is him. He won’t change. Everyone knows it, including his cabinet.

Senior ministers, including Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, could and should now bring his faltering premiership to an end by resigning. They no longer have the excuse that they are waiting for someone else to “jump first” now that Dowden has done it.

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Johnson could withstand one or two resignations, but not several by Truss, Sunak and the other cabinet pretenders. They will be wary because Michael Heseltine, who challenged Margaret Thatcher in 1990, did not inherit the crown. But Tory folklore forgets that Thatcher did in 1975 by having the courage to challenge Edward Heath. They could avoid Heseltine’s fate by acting in concert. That is what brought down Thatcher: 14 cabinet ministers told her in one-to-one meetings she should go, reflecting the views on the Tory backbenches who, like now, were alarmed she had lost the voters.

However, today’s cabinet ministers might conclude that leaving Johnson in place for the time being serves their own interests, so he takes the rap for the living standards crisis. That might be good for them, but it would be bad for the country. As Johnson limps on, the response to the economic crisis will continue to be determined by his desperate attempts to appease right-wing Tory MPs.

After the by-elections, there is little confidence in Toryland that Johnson can recover; his departure looks only a matter of time. The party should get on with it.

Dowden’s resignation means Johnson has lost two of the three young Turks who played an important part in his rise to the Tory leadership in 2019. Robert Jenrick, the former housing secretary, and Dowden wrote a timely article endorsing Johnson. The other author was Sunak. Over to you, Rishi.