Scotland’s election results are far from the epoch-defining moment they were billed as

The 2021 Scottish parliament election was billed as an epoch-defining moment. The SNP framed it as the most important vote since devolution in 1999. The Scottish Conservatives pleaded with voters to support their party, even if it was just this once. The pro-independence Scottish Green Party urged people to “vote like your future depended on it”.

People in Scotland agreed. Turnout across the country was up by more than 10 per cent, with queues of voters determinedly waiting to cast their ballots. Hail and snow, unseasonal even in Scotland, did not deter voters from flocking to the polls.

But anyone hoping an enthused electorate would deliver a resolution to the perennial question of Scottish independence will be disappointed. After all the huffing and puffing of the election campaign – all the pleading and arm twisting – the people of Scotland have returned a parliament for the next five years that looks very much like the one it had for the previous five. The country, it seems, is still very much split down the middle.

While the SNP remains by far the largest party – no mean feat after 14 years in government – it failed to secure a majority, just as it failed to do in 2016. In fact, it won 64 seats, just one more than it did at the last devolved election. Given the electoral system for the Scottish parliament – deliberately designed to avoid one party winning a majority – this is perhaps not surprising.

Nationalists can also take comfort from the fact that, with the Scottish Green Party, which has slightly improved on previous performance, plurality in favour of independence has still been returned to Holyrood. Again, no change from last time.

The Scottish Conservatives – no longer led by the charismatic Ruth Davidson – retained their place as Scotland’s main opposition party, winning, once again, 31 seats. Scottish Labour, despite a spirited campaign by new leader Anas Sarwar, remained third. Even attempts to break the mould of Scottish politics by Alex Salmond and George Galloway amounted to nothing.

In some ways, this continuation of the status quo is surprising. Rarely have the stars so aligned for a leader as they did for Nicola Sturgeon ahead of this election. The Covid-19 pandemic, while generally damaging Boris Johnson’s reputation in Scotland, has significantly enhanced Sturgeon’s. Brexit, which a majority of people in Scotland continue to oppose, has hit local industries – notably fisheries – particularly hard. Popular and effective opponents, such as Davidson, have left the frontline of Scottish politics. Opinion polls suggested the SNP was on course for a majority even surpassing the one achieved by the party in 2011. This was Sturgeon’s opportunity and, while it has not exactly been missed, it has not exactly been seized either.

Similarly, many would have expected Salmond – the man who won the only majority in the history of the Scottish parliament in 2011 – to perform better. Instead, he was utterly humiliated, his “hundred days” in fact lasting just 30. Meanwhile Davidson’s replacement, Douglas Ross, actually managed to achieve a respectable result, despite a series of disastrous TV debates.

Of course, the result will still allow the SNP to legitimately legislate for a second independence referendum – something Sturgeon has said she wants to happen before 2023. It has the votes in Holyrood, as it has for the last five years, and will relish a court battle with the UK government, if and when it vetoes the SNP’s bid to stage a re-run of the 2014 ballot. The SNP may also seek to enter a formal coalition with the Scottish Green Party in a bid to strengthen its position further.

For Johnson and his government, the election result will cause a cocktail of hand-wringing, mild anxiety and meek platitudes. It may result in the union flag being more ostentatiously slapped on projects funded from Westminster or, more controversially, Whitehall seeking to bypass the Scottish government and deliver funds to local government in Scotland directly.

But such aesthetic and institutional changes on both sides will be the only – and largely insignificant – consequence of this election.

The reality in Scotland, as demonstrated by this result and despite a high turnout, is a deeply divided country, where the population is equally split for or against Scottish independence. This was the case when voters went to the polls five years ago and it clearly remains the case now. Far from defining an epoch in Scottish politics, this election has further entrenched the impasse at its heart.

Andrew Liddle is an author and political consultant based in Edinburgh