The Ashcroft report shows Labour needs an overhaul of the way it treats voters

Over the last week or so, I’ve been thinking a lot about David. David, a first-time Conservative voter from the traditional Labour heartland of Bolton, is the star of a nicely put together social media video pumped out last week by the Conservative Party.

For the Tories, he represents those who couldn’t bring themselves to vote Labour in December and instead “loaned” their vote to Boris Johnson. For Labour, he represents the party’s malaise that led to this point and the shifting sands we walk on, as we try to find a way forward.

David isn’t the only interesting case study Conservatives have handed Labour recently. Lord Ashcroft’s Diagnosis of Defeat, Labour's Turn to Smell the Coffee – a remake of his 2005 report for his own party – lays bare the challenges facing Labour over 30 harrowing pages. While some will dismiss it because of its author, it is the most interesting, objective and surgical investigation into the interconnected ways in which Labour ended up a humiliated, rump opposition.

So remorseless and relentless is its analysis, Labour supporters could be forgiven for giving up before they get to the section titled "The Future". But it is here that some of the most head in hands moments can be found. According to Ashcroft, nearly three-quarters of Labour members believe that voters like David, who switched from Labour to the Conservatives, will “go straight back to Labour at the next election”.

Half believe this will be because “the government’s policies will prove so damaging that they will regret having voted for it”. These are the so–called loaned votes we saw earlier. In doing so, Labour members are unknowingly parroting Tory messaging.

For Labour people, the strain of thinking roughly goes like this: the government is already beset by infighting between No 10 and No 11. It is shedding manifesto pledges like a snake does its skin. It’s hard to find voices who think the benefits of ambitious infrastructure plans will be reaped before the next election. And besides, Boris is a charlatan and the Tories can never represent working people. Because the conditions of loaned votes like David’s are unlikely to be fulfilled, it naturally follows that the scales will fall from voters’ eyes ahead of the next election and they will return to Labour’s embrace.

It’s easy to see why this view is reassuring. But the loaned vote theory is a particularly unsubtle trap set for Labour, a 10ft hole in the ground with a comfort blanket placed at the bottom. It encourages the left to avoid the tricky task of asking searching questions of ourselves, to simply leave the porch light on and wait for our voters’ return home. This “keep calm and carry on” approach is the road to more defeats. The Conservatives are betting that this is the approach we take.

The Ashcroft report makes it clear Labour needs an overhaul of the way it presents itself and the way it treats voters. The idea former Labour voters only voted Conservative because of Brexit, or because they wanted a trial period with the Tories, delays Labour’s renewal and all but ensures defeat. Worse, we will have willingly allowed Boris Johnson to set the terms of his success.

Labour has nothing to lose, except losing itself. The first thing we must ditch is our miserabilism. For some reason, we ignore the thread that links the victories of Blair and Obama to Sadiq Khan: that all the left’s wins in recent memory come when it understands the importance of people and place and positivity, of having a vision for the next generation, not nostalgia for previous ones.

ONS statistics show people in the UK are significantly happier and more satisfied with their lives than at the start of the coalition government. To listen to the Labour Party, you would never think this: the country we seek to govern is too often a gross caricature, a hopeless place, populated solely by billionaires and the broken people they have trampled over. Where are the Davids?

I am not one of the voices who think the next election is already lost. The British vote has been fragmenting for decades, and politics is more volatile than ever before. The Ashcroft report offers tantalising glimpses of how Labour can succeed. As a starting place, we will have a new leader in a couple of months. Sir Keir Starmer is currently leading nominations from local Labour parties by a factor of almost 2:1. He is described by participants in Ashcroft’s report as “up to the job” and a “potential election winner.” A lot of waffle is written about the leader the Tories would most fear: it is the person who the public think could be prime minister.

With a new leader, a shadow cabinet appointed on merit and the promotion of some of our most talented but sidelined voices we will be an effective and united opposition. It’s important that Labour does what it has always done and always will do, standing up for the most vulnerable in society. But there is no contradiction between that and being the party of the Davids, who want to focus on their careers or the things that matter to them and are able to vote for a government and a leader they trust to listen and get on with it.

Likewise, with Brexit out the way, it is incumbent on the left to build from the ashes of our defeat. We must not allow ourselves to wallow, or look like we want to be proven right. Whether we like the decision or not, we are all in this together. It should go without saying that there is no contradiction between this and holding the government’s feet to the fire over the ideological decisions it makes over future trading relationships.

In order to win the vote of David and the millions like him who simply couldn’t bring themselves to vote Labour, we must listen to what they are telling us and respond accordingly. This will require honesty, reconciliation and an outward–looking approach that is fit for 2030 and beyond. There can be no calling for the good old days. These are the good old days.

Paul Ovenden is a former Labour spokesperson