Red Wall voters are finally taking Keir Starmer seriously

In the last few weeks, it has felt very much like Keir Starmer has arrived in British politics. He has been the grown-up in the room. In contrast to the toddler in No 10, he has barely put a foot wrong, handling the “Partygate” scandal with aplomb while also finding the time to look statesman-like as the threat of a war on the continent of Europe looms larger than it has for decades.

Starmer has made speeches and penned articles that have set a very different tone to the pantomime in Downing Street. He’s even found time to make one or two timely and politically savvy interventions, such as how he would reverse planned cuts to the British army. Making the rise of crime and fraud central to his messaging has been pitch perfect too.

And the voters have noticed. His polling lead has solidified – and in the focus groups I run every week, often in bits of the Red Wall that Starmer needs to bring back into the Labour fold if he wants to win a general election, people are now taking him seriously. Most of the people I speak to in places like Bury and Teesside are now either relaxed or even in favour of the idea of a PM called Starmer.

Partygate has acted as a catalyst; voters have fallen out of love with Boris Johnson at pretty much the same time as they decided that Keir was OK. As recently as less than 12 months ago, this would have seemed deeply improbable. I ran focus groups around the Hartlepool by-election that the Conservatives so spectacularly swept, and back then the picture was grim for Labour. In many working class groups, Starmer had no name recognition at all: they still thought Jeremy Corbyn was Labour leader. This matters, because they loathed Corbyn.

When Starmer’s name was known, it was not in a good way. He was dismissed as a southern lawyer who couldn’t be trusted. At the time, he appeared no match for the “authentic” tussle-haired PM who everybody wanted to go for a pint with.

This no longer appears to be the case. People are furious with Johnson over the parties that happened in Downing Street while the rest of the country was quietly surrendering to voluntary house arrest in the name of saving lives and protecting the NHS. It feels very much like he is permanently damaged by this scandal.

But Starmer’s team must be aware that they are a very long way from home and dry. The polling suggests that while Johnson is badly beaten up, he’s not yet out for the count – and Starmer’s lead over Johnson is not exactly off the charts.

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In my focus groups, while people are now accepting of him, they are not exactly chanting Starmer’s name while signing up to go canvassing for him. All of which leads me to my substantive point, which is that there are big elephant traps ahead for Starmer when it comes to the substance. He obviously isn’t obliged to make big sweeping policy announcements for some time – an election is probably still more than two years away.

But when he does, the voters will be watching – especially now they think of him as a contender. If Starmer is tempted by a little radicalism, there will be those that notice. I’m most certainly not saying that he shouldn’t propose bold policy solutions, but he should also be aware that it’s a risky business – and make sure that he knows what he is doing.

There is an election to win in the not-too-distant future – and Starmer has a great opportunity to land the first Labour victory for nearly two decades. It’s best to remain calm and in control, in contrast to the man who he wants to replace. Right now, boring is his friend.

Ed Dorrell is a director at Public First