‘Freedom day’ will not bring Boris Johnson much freedom – he faces a tough autumn and winter

Boris Johnson gave in to the lockdown sceptics on the Tory backbenches by announcing a “big bang” lifting of the remaining coronavirus restrictions on 19 July. Officially, the final decision will be announced on Monday – and some scientists still hope for a last-minute rethink because the number of new infections could rise to 100,000 a day by next month. But the die is cast, and they will be disappointed.

Even if his calculated gamble on Covid pays off, Johnson will face a stream of demands from voters and MPs to tackle post-pandemic problems such as the catch-up in education, and NHS waiting lists. “Schools and hospitals first” was New Labour’s mantra; the party should revive it, to play on voters’ latent doubts about the Tories’ commitment to public services.

Perhaps it was always going to take a political decision to override the scientists’ doubts. Johnson allies argue that there will never be a good time to end restrictions, as there would always be health risks. They say 19 July was the least worst time; any delay would merely push the peak of the third wave to the autumn, with hospitals under even more pressure than they will be now.

The prime minister cannot be accused of following public opinion: on this occasion, he is trying to lead it. According to Ipsos MORI, seven out of 10 people would like to see face masks remain compulsory in shops and on public transport for a month after 19 July, while two in three want to see this until Covid is under control worldwide, and 40 per cent want it permanently – regardless of the Covid risk.

Johnson’s decision delighted Tory MPs clamouring for “Freedom Day”, who hailed the chance to dispense with masks as a boost to civil liberties. Never mind the civil liberties of the hundreds of thousands of people who will catch Covid this summer, the estimated 500 a day who will develop long Covid or millions who have to self-isolate. Tellingly, the government refused to disclose its experts’ forecasts of how many people will suffer such fates. Despite Sajid Javid’s talk of “freedom”, ministers know it will not feel like that for many.

Johnson hoped his announcement would win him some brownie points from his rebellious backbenchers. It didn’t. Just as hardline Brexiteers always demand more, the appetite of lockdown sceptics wasn’t satisfied. No surprise there, as many of them are also hardened Eurosceptics. Steve Baker, a leading light in both groups, deleted the NHS Covid app so he cannot be “pinged” – hardly a responsible act for an MP. He pocketed Johnson’s concessions and set a new “litmus test”: ending self-isolation for the fully vaccinated.

The never-satisfied brigade is miffed because Johnson ruled that double-jabbed people would have to wait until 16 August to avoid self-isolation. This was seen at Westminster as a concession to Johnson’s scientific advisers in return for them backing the 19 July unlocking.

Despite the taste of freedom, Tory MPs are grumpy. They thwarted a plot by government whips and Conservative HQ to replace Graham Brady as chair of the 1922 Committee with a loyalist, Heather Wheeler. Brady survived her challenge by a “close but clear” margin. He is a lockdown sceptic who will likely oppose the reintroduction of restrictions this winter, a move scientists say may be necessary, but which the Brady Bunch would hate. (It was revealing that Johnson appeared to drop his pledge that ending restrictions is “irreversible”; he knows that some might have to be reversed.)

Brady’s public opposition to Covid curbs has irked Downing Street aides, who wanted a more low-key shop steward. In his re-election campaign, Brady said Tory backbenchers should not be “creatures of the party whips”. He told Times Radio they should be consulted more fully before policies are announced, rather than be fobbed off with “a glass of warm white wine at Number 10”.

Brady’s victory shows Tory MPs are in a rebellious mood. Backbench revolts loom over plans to increase house building, to cut overseas aid and universal credit, and to raise taxes to fund social care reform, while the cost of moving to “net zero” carbon emissions is the likely next battleground for the Tory rebels who are never without a cause. Johnson must navigate conflicting currents, with MPs in red-wall seats demanding more money for their areas while those in the Tories’ southern heartlands warn their patches are being neglected.

To compound Johnson’s problems, Labour made an important gear change this week. Keir Starmer, under pressure from his own party, adopted a more critical stance on Covid, branding the Delta variant the “Johnson variant”, and ventured into the Brexit debate for the first time as Labour leader by accusing Johnson of playing party politics with Northern Ireland.

A return to politics as usual might be good news for Labour, but not for Johnson. “Freedom day” will not bring him much freedom; he faces a tough autumn and winter.