Vaccine passports are on their way across the globe – whether some people want them or not

There is set to be a new global standard to combat Covid-19 in the form of vaccine passports.

It will take a couple of years for vaccination to become universal, and there will be resistance for all sorts of reasons. But this is the way all developed countries are moving, and they will be joined by emerging nations when vaccines become more widely available.

If this seems sweeping, look at what is already happening. In the UK, it looks as though evidence of vaccination will become compulsory for attending large indoor gatherings, including nightclubs. There will be a vote this week in Scotland on similar plans.

In France, the pass sanitaire brought in last month for people to visit shopping centres, eat indoors at restaurants and so on, seems to have generated popular support in a country that initially had low vaccine acceptance rates. The same can be said for other parts of Europe, Canada and some US cities. Some places have an alternative to the vaccine passport – a recent Covid-19 test – but that is cumbersome in comparison to the simplicity of having the jab.

There will be further tension too. Should NHS workers be made to have had the vaccine? Should children get them? That plan has been in the works for some weeks and it looks as if the decision to extend vaccines to 12- to 15-year-olds will be confirmed shortly even though vaccines minister Nadhim Zahawi said no decision has been made yet. He also confirmed that parental consent would be needed.

We are inevitably focused on the rules of the country we are in, or the one that we plan to visit because that is what affects our daily lives. But to worry about this is to miss the big picture when there are powerful economic forces driving what the world will do. Individual governments – or in the US, states and cities – currently have the discretion to impose their own rules, but that is because we are still in a period of flux. When things settle down they will have no choice but to adopt a global standard.

Think of it in economic terms. If you’re fully vaccinated would you choose to stay in a hotel that required all guests and staff to be vaccinated, or one that didn’t? It’s a no-brainer. Apply the same thought to an airline. You would choose the one that required vaccination. So the business case will be to require vaccination.

The same applies to the workplace. Working from home will continue for some people some of the time, while being vaccinated may become a requirement for going into the office – just as it will be for staff in care homes from 11 November. For those fortunate enough to be able to work from home, getting the jab will remain their choice, but I suspect that as time goes by they will lose out vis-a-vis their office-going peers. As Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, has warned, enterprises rely on the social capital built up from staff meeting each other, and if people are not in the office that capital will decline.

Besides, if you’re trying to sell something, are you more likely to get the business if you meet the potential buyer face-to-face, or try to sell on Zoom? It seems commercial pressure will require people to be vaccinated too.

And let’s not forget the many people – a majority of the workforce actually – that can’t work remotely. Last year, 63 per cent of UK workers couldn’t work from home, even at the height of the pandemic.

So there will be rising pressure on everyone to be vaccinated. Whatever the local laws, the economics will generate that pressure. You can choose not to be vaccinated, but that will shut you out of many activities, from going on a foreign holiday to eating indoors in a restaurant. And it will also shut you out of many jobs.

To some people, perhaps more in the US than in Europe and the UK, this will be a troubling prospect – a loss of freedom. But I don’t think it should be when there are already many limitations on us, like obeying traffic lights and scooping up dog excrement. It’s difficult to get by without being computer literate. If you live in the US, it is tough to get around if you can’t drive. Most of us need mobile phones, and so on. Our freedoms change over time. And the greater good is to crush this dreadful virus.