We need a clear answer from Boris Johnson over vaccine passports – but we likely won’t get one

When Boris Johnson issues his eagerly awaited roadmap out of lockdown on Monday, he should give a clear statement on whether the government supports the use of vaccine passports domestically. But he almost certainly won't.

He will support their use for foreign travel; other countries will introduce them and headlines about blocking holidays abroad for Brits are the stuff of ministerial nightmares. Indeed, the government is already in discussions with countries such as Greece. Privately, ministers believe vaccine passports are bound to emerge at home too – controversially, in the workplace as some employers demand the vaccine as a condition of employment. They could also become what Johnson has previously described as a “freedom pass” for leisure activities, including going to restaurants, pubs, theatres, cinemas or sporting events.

Johnson and his ministers have discussed domestic passports but are wary of a public debate. Introducing them could boost the take-up of the Covid-19 vaccine, notably among health and care workers, many of whose patients and residents would like the protection it would give them.

The government does not want to be accused of making the vaccine compulsory by the back door. Passports could create a two-tier society in which the “jabs and jab nots” become the “haves and have nots”; groups such as black and minority ethnic communities with a lower vaccine take-up would become second-class citizens.

Trade unions are understandably worried that “jabs for jobs” could mean workers who refuse the vaccine lose their jobs, or fail to get new ones at a time of great change in the labour market. The inequalities exposed would not be a good advert for One Nation Conservatism or levelling up.

However, there is a solution to the unfairness problem. It lies in something Johnson is much keener to talk about: an expansion of rapid mass testing. He said this week that this could hold the key to reopening nightclubs and theatres.

A combination of vaccine passports and mass testing would be more workable than relying on testing alone. Many people would be happy to have a digital passport on their phone; for those without a smartphone, biometric facial recognition could be used to check their vaccine status. People who could not have the vaccine on health grounds or who object to it could take a rapid test instead.

There is another reason why Johnson will probably steer clear of domestic passports on Monday. He already faces a battle with lockdown sceptics on the Tory benches, who will not like the cautious, slow approach to easing restrictions his scientific advisers have rightly persuaded him to adopt. He knows he locked down too slowly and relaxed curbs too quickly last year.

Tory MPs in the 70-strong Covid Recovery Group (CRG) are proud libertarians (some doubt Johnson is one, despite his rhetoric). They view vaccine passports as bringing in identity cards by stealth. Steve Baker, the group’s vice-chair, said such passports would be “unethical”, telling ITV’s Peston programme: “I don't think it’s right in a democracy, which should be about majority rule and minority rights. It’s wrong to implicitly coerce those people to have a medical procedure that they don’t want.”

The prime minister knows his roadmap will disappoint these MPs and does not want to fight them on two fronts. Again, internal Tory politics is shaping his approach.

The line to take for ministers in media interviews is that vaccine passports are a matter for individual employers or venues. They suspect the question will be settled in the courts. That is a cop-out. Johnson shouldn’t stand on the sidelines but should give a lead – both abroad and at home. As Tony Blair argues, vaccine passports would be best organised on a global basis. With 120 countries including the UK already asking for a negative test result before allowing people in, this will inevitably extend over time to demanding proof of vaccination.

Blair believes passports would boost the public’s confidence about resuming activities, saying: “There is no prospect of a return to anything like normal without enabling people to show their Covid status, whether that means they have been vaccinated or recently tested.”

Although some Labour figures can’t bring themselves to admit it, Blair is having a good period; his ideas are often rubbished but then adopted. A year ago, he put a joint public-private sector proposal for mass testing to the government, which rejected it. Now Johnson is a big fan of it. Blair suggested delaying the second dose of the vaccine to ensure more people get it. That was dismissed by the government – and soon approved by it. The pattern will probably repeat itself on a global vaccine passport.

Whether we like them or not, vaccine passports are coming. Johnson should get ahead of the game, organise them fairly by combining them with rapid mass testing and preventing a patchwork of schemes more open to forgery. Otherwise he will be running to catch up.