Boris Johnson’s response to coronavirus is out of character – sensible and well-informed

The prime minister was wise to bring along England’s chief medical officer (CMO), Chris Whitty, to his press conference on the coronavirus outbreak. One of the more unfortunate legacies of Boris Johnson’s long career in the public eye is that his word is not always taken at face value; that of Professor Whitty is. It seems there are times when experts are needed, after all.

Mr Whitty was clear and honest about the meaning of the “reasonable worst-case scenario”. In that circumstance, the rate of infection should not exceed 80 per cent, and will probably be lower. The broad mortality rate of 1 per cent varies very widely among age groups, with those over 80 and those with pre-existing conditions most at risk.

The government therefore needs to take seriously the potential impact of a coronavirus outbreak in places where the highest-risk individuals – whose average estimated mortality rate is around 15 per cent – live at close quarters. It must propose an action plan targeted at care homes and geriatric wards; already hard-pressed care providers need financial aid and extra staff.

When it comes to individual behaviour, the reported shortage of hand cleansers seems to confirm that the message about hygiene is getting through. Between proper handwashing and banning all flights from China, the former is a far more effective prophylactic.

While the public is naturally prone to worry, the fact remains that the vast majority of coronavirus cases will be mild – nothing worse than a bad cough – and clear up in around three weeks. For the young, there is minimal risk of complications; for those above middle age, the risks rise. Yet even among older patients, the great majority will recover, according to the CMO. While coronavirus may seem like something out of science fiction, it is not going to precipitate an apocalypse.

The “action plan” developed by ministers on the advice of the UK’s four chief medical officers and the devolved administrations is sound. The four arms of the strategy are sensible and logical: contain, delay, research and mitigate.

We are currently in the “containment” phase. We will likely move into “delay” in due course, now that a few cases in the UK have been discovered unconnected to overseas travel – meaning the virus is currently being carried in pockets across the UK. Working from home, football matches played behind closed doors, schools closed, the establishment of so-called “no-go areas” – all will possibly be necessary if the infection rate hits a critical point.

Meanwhile, the government must urgently ensure financial support for the self-employed and casual workers made to stay at home because of an infection. It is not good enough for the prime minister to dodge and state that statutory sick pay provisions are “under review”.

On the “research” front, a new vaccine is already underway, and there are hopeful signals that one may be available by the autumn. With some luck, the outbreak will have subsidised by the time summer turns to winter.

Last is “mitigation”. Unpleasant as it may be, it could prove necessary to build additional morgues and deploy troops to support the emergency services. Those are not reason for alarm, but reassuring signs that the government is planning for the worst. So far, the government’s response has been proportionate and guided by expert advice – a welcome change from its modus operandi.