The Conservatives have run out of ideas – but where are Labour’s alternatives?

Labour was quick to claim it is “winning the battle of ideas” after the Conservatives ruthlessly stole its proposed windfall tax on oil and gas companies. A fair enough complaint, but what are Labour’s big ideas?

In media interviews, its frontbenchers sometimes struggle to spell them out. To his left-wing critics, Keir Starmer is an empty vessel who has walked away from the Corbyn-like platform of his Labour leadership campaign. More worryingly for Starmer, some of his allies are now concerned that big ideas are in short supply and his instinctive caution stops him seeking and articulating them.

They fear that being “not Corbyn” and a serious, rule-abiding antidote to Boris Johnson will not be enough to inspire the public, so Labour must now set out transformative policies to explain how it would change the country. I think they are right: you can win a party leadership election by “not being” someone else, but a general election requires a wider vision and appeal.

The opinion polls tell us Labour benefits from an anti-Tory (or more accurately, anti-Johnson) protest vote but is not yet winning enough positive support. Labour enjoyed an average six-point lead in the 24 surveys taken in May, a disastrous month for Johnson, but that was lower than the eight-point gap in January. The Tories were on 33 per cent – coincidentally, Labour’s score at the 2019 election. But Labour was on 39 per cent, six points below the Tories’ 45 per cent share of the vote in 2019. (The difference is due mainly to a rise in support for the Greens).

Today’s polls would only allow Labour to squeak over the finishing line as the largest party in a hung parliament. According to Electoral Calculus, Labour would have 310 seats and the Tories 252 on proposed new constituency boundaries, leaving Starmer 16 short of an overall majority.

Yes, the Tories would be out and Starmer would become prime minister. But the current polls leave Labour no cushion if the Tories mount a fight back, perhaps under a new leader, or continue Johnson’s big spending to leave Labour little space. Labour needs to create some real dividing lines.

Another reason why Starmer needs rocket boosters is that if the polls continue to point to a hung parliament, that prospect will inevitably shape the debate between now and the election. It will suit the Tories nicely; they will warn of a “coalition of chaos” because Labour would need the support of the Liberal Democrats and Scottish National Party to govern. At the 2015 election, the SNP spectre haunted Labour. The party would look less scary to voters if the polls pointed to it winning an overall majority.

I’ve been looking at the documents just sent to Labour members and trade unions as part of Starmer’s wholesale review of policy. They are long on analysis of the Tories’ record and raise lots of questions but it’s a case of the bland leading the bland. There are plenty of platitudes – “Labour would guarantee decent, well-paid work in a modern, vibrant workplace”; Labour wants “a country where families come first,” “world class public services” and to “buy, make and sell more in Britain”. But there are few means to the worthy ends.

Proposals sent in by Labour members – such as backing proportional representation; rejoining the single market or EU; a universal basic income; nationalising the privatised utilities – will doubtless be squashed by Starmer. There are some hopeful hints, such as closer co-operation with the EU on security and foreign affairs.

Labour’s review says: “The invasion [of Ukraine] will almost certainly have long-term implications for Europe, presenting a need to work closely with European allies and determine a future UK-EU relationship which is not based on petty spats with one of our closest diplomatic and defence partners.”

This internal process is a holding operation. As ever, the new policies on which Labour will fight the election will come from the leader’s office and shadow cabinet members, one of whom told me: “We know we have to do more on policy; the party conference [in September] will be important.”

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Perhaps I’m wrong to be sceptical and Starmer has secretly built a massive ideas factory in a bunker underneath Labour HQ. Sadly, I doubt it.

Starmer has rightly begun to acknowledge New Labour’s achievements in office. He should remember that Tony Blair and Gordon Brown did the hard yards on policies and the ideas underpinning them before winning power in 1997. Spending pledges were limited but meaningful, such as cutting class sizes and NHS waiting lists. Although Bank of England independence was not announced until after the election, the spadework was done in opposition.

There is little sign of such labours today, even with less than two years to go to the election pencilled in by the Tories for May 2024. Starmer should also remember that elections are won in years rather than weeks or months.