Boris Johnson will be handing Labour a lifeline if there’s a no-deal Brexit

Last year, Boris Johnson put the chances of not securing a trade deal with the EU as “a million to one against”. Today, it is “very, very likely”. 

I no longer think Johnson is bluffing. Just as he will not accept that any trade agreement involves some loss of sovereignty, the EU is not prepared to do anything that would undermine the integrity of its precious single market.

Although negotiations are continuing in Brussels, the two sides appear to be going through the motions, so they can tell their domestic audience they tried hard to reach an agreement. “We have run out of road, and energy,” one exasperated EU figure told me.

In his mind, Johnson is reprising his greatest hits: “take back control” in the 2016 referendum and “get Brexit done” in the general election exactly a year ago. On both occasions, he successfully appealed to the patriotic instincts of the British people. He is doing it again now, insisting the UK will “prosper mightily” under no deal, blithely ignoring warnings about the economic harm from the Bank of England and Office for Budget Responsibility.

Of course, some Leave votes in the red-turned-blue wall might warm to the Johnson Brussels-bashing that would likely follow no deal. But I suspect any patriotic feelgood factor would dissipate very quickly, eclipsed by news bulletins about disruption at the borders, shortages in the shops, food price rises and job losses. Some of these things would have happened under the wafer-thin deal Johnson wanted, due to increased red tape for business. But after no agreement,  all the problems would be blamed on his failure to land one.

No deal would transform the domestic political landscape, but not in the way Johnson might think. To preserve the coalition he assembled a year ago, Johnson needs to appeal to floating voters in the southern marginals as well as his new friends in the north. A messy, chaotic deal would not impress them, firming up the “incompetent government” narrative already in their minds due to the coronavirus pandemic.

If Johnson doesn’t pull back from the cliff edge, he would hand Labour a lifeline. Tory MPs thought Keir Starmer struggled when he made a rare intervention on Brexit at prime minister’s questions on Wednesday. But they missed the big picture: no deal has allowed the Labour leader back into the Brexit game. Yes, Starmer has baggage, as the person who steered his party to back a Final Say referendum on a Brexit deal. But that would be less of an issue if Johnson’s “oven-ready deal” turned out to be a mirage.

No deal would unite the Labour Party against Johnson at the very moment when Starmer is trying to contain a damaging internal split. He wants Labour MPs to vote for any Johnson deal, but pro-European figures, including some shadow cabinet members, cannot stomach that and want the party to abstain. 

No deal would give Starmer a “get out of jail free” card. The disruption would hand the opposition a mountain of ammunition. Labour would lay responsibility at the door of No 10. As one Labour frontbencher put it: “We are going to hang everything round Johnson’s neck.”

The other unintended beneficiary of no deal would be Nicola Sturgeon. It would offer her the perfect launchpad for next May’s Scottish parliament elections, and securing a mandate at them for a second independent referendum. If the history of the break-up of the UK is written one day, as I fear it will be, Johnson would have a starring role he wouldn’t want, as the architect of Brexit and no deal, both imposed on Scotland against its will.

No deal would not be a brief storm before calmer heads prevailed and the UK and EU returned to the negotiating table early next year. Emmanuel Macron, the French president, hopes a taste of horrible medicine would force Johnson to come back with his tail between his legs. That wouldn’t happen; the prime minister would surely be finished if he accepted an agreement worse or the same as on offer now. 

Similarly, the EU will have other fish to fry. The UK question would probably be put on the back burner for 18 months, until after elections to decide Angela Merkel’s successor in Germany and whether Macron retains power in France.

Although both the EU and UK would suffer economically, Brussels is convinced the damage will be worse on the British side of the Channel. With the Brexiteers’ promised benefits of global trade deals unlikely to compensate for shrinking its biggest market, the Tories would surely struggle to explain their historic no-deal mistake at the next election, when Labour’s position would be stronger than if Johnson had done a deal.