The PM filled a Brexit-shaped hole – what’s he doing now?

Boris Johnson hasn’t changed. Let’s not forget it when considering the calls for him to face a vote of no confidence. He’s still the same guy that won a leadership contest and a huge majority in 2019. He also hasn’t shed any of the flaws that were overlooked at the time.

We were told that he was more of a chairman-type figure, not someone who would be in the weeds, micromanaging. So we shouldn’t be surprised at the failure to tackle issues in his own domain. For the best part of this year he hasn’t gotten a grip, perhaps because he’s not really in the details, so the anger people still feel about Downing Street lockdown parties is morphing into something different.

It’s no longer just about breaking the rules. It is about the whole operation and how it has been handled.

Every day there’s yet another distraction from the mission and purpose of government, whether the ethics chief is on the brink of resignation or the cabinet is briefing against one another on windfall taxes. Downing Street remains in disarray. Blaming advisers and bag carriers is a ridiculous fall back, and the PM is running out of excuses to explain why the shine is coming off.

More central to the problem is what exactly is the mission and purpose of this government. The pressures facing us are not Boris Johnson’s fault. He could not have predicted a pandemic, nor could he have foreseen the economic fallout, but he could have handled it better. The economy is on a downward trajectory and the world is becoming increasingly unstable – where’s the plan? Or at least a diagnosis of the problem? Where is the intellectual framework that all leaders need to give us a sense of direction?

Westminster types will recall the emotional peaks and troughs endured in the May era – the stasis and lack of purpose in her administration once the rebels had decided against her was incurable. There is something similar occurring now, the rebels who have declared publicly are the usual suspects but the constant threat of challenge and dismal showings in recent polls will have unsettled some “shy assassins” to act. Against a backdrop of constant plots and undermining, how is a government agenda to be delivered?

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Backbench MPs will be making various calculations about what step to take next. Perhaps they won’t send a letter in, perhaps if there’s a vote they will back the PM. They cannot make decisions rashly, it has to be done within the context. It’s why there are reports coming out of No 10 that a snap election maybe on the cards if the PM is challenged. The only problem with that: according to YouGov’s MRP poll, it would decimate the Conservative benches including the PM’s own seat.

The Conservatives were always unlikely to win the next general election, even if their performance had been stellar. It is probable that even if Boris Johnson is ousted a new person will just be managing decline until 2024. But most parliamentarians will want to go down with a fight, not hand over their seats willingly.

Boris filled a Brexit-shaped hole when he came back with his stonking majority three years ago. It is hard to see what purpose he serves now. The relaunches of his leadership are numerous but not one has helped the public move past the self-inflicted wounds of this government. Conservative MPs are now in the unenviable position of having to decide whether they think he can change or whether they need to cut their losses now before it’s too late.