There are whispers from Tory MPs that Boris Johnson is on ‘probation’

When John Major ran into deep trouble as prime minister, I prised a quote from a leader of the 1922 Committee of Tory MPs that he was “on probation”. This wounding verdict made the front pages and Major never recovered his authority. Ominously for Boris Johnson, the same p-word is being whispered by his backbenchers after the worst week of his premiership.

Like Major, a damaging narrative is being set in stone that Johnson will struggle to break. The permanent crisis mode eclipses everything, and isn’t ended by fightbacks, relaunches and resets, as Johnson will have to attempt in the new year.

This week was “crime week” on Downing Street’s planning grid. Although we briefly saw Johnson in a police bobble hat, it wasn’t supposed to be about whether allegations about No 10 parties before last Christmas would be referred to the police. Context is all: the latest row about the refurbishment of Johnson’s Downing Street flat was more serious because it dovetailed with claims he did not tell the truth about the parties.

As Major discovered, it is very difficult to turn such a tide, especially when normally loyal Tory newspapers turn against you, as they did this week. I suspect what would have hurt Johnson most was Thursday’s front page of The Daily Telegraph, which according to Dominic Cummings he still regards as his “real boss”.

The headlines included: “Beginning of the end for Boris?”, “Johnson ‘must resign’ if he misled MPs over No 10 party” and “Don’t go to work, but do go to parties.” Vintage Major. The contempt in pro-Tory papers for Johnson over inconsistent Covid restrictions reminded me of the ridicule Major suffered.

More important than the media is that when the public makes up its mind about a politician, it is virtually impossible to change that perception. I doubt the serious damage from the Christmas parties can be undone; they have caused real anger.

Major was never accused of lying but looked like an accident-prone, weak leader after his “back to basics” message was wrecked by personal and financial “Tory sleaze” and his party’s economic credibility was shredded by Black Wednesday. He limped on for almost five years before being ousted by the voters rather than his party, but there is now a real risk that Johnson will follow Margaret Thatcher, Theresa May and Iain Duncan Smith in being booted out by Tory MPs.

In 2013, Johnson wrote a Telegraph column about his Australian campaign guru Lynton Crosby’s distraction tactic of throwing a “dead cat” on the table so people talk about that “and they will not be talking about the issue that has been causing you so much grief."

That is why the PM desperately tried to deflect attention from “party-gate” by rushing in his Covid plan B. It surprised cabinet ministers since the measures were not on the cards when they met in person on Tuesday; ministers were scrambled for a virtual session the following day. But this “dead cat” managed to sink its claws into Johnson. More MPs are turning against him.

The ranks of the lockdown sceptics have grown. Some Brexiteers think he has served his purpose and believe his tax rises and interventionism are “unconservative”.  MPs in the north and Midlands fear the “one rule for us” perception and lack of progress on “levelling up” are killing their chances of retaining their seats. It’s a cruel game, politics.

Until recently, these MPs were loyal because it was Johnson who “won” the red wall. Only two years on, the talk in Toryland is that his MPs will force a vote of confidence in him as party leader if they conclude he has become an electoral liability. For the first time, this week I started to think it could happen.

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Things can only get worse for Johnson, in the short term at least. More than 50 MPs from all wings of his party are likely to rebel over Covid restrictions on Tuesday. Senior Tories fear defeat by the Liberal Democrats in North Shropshire on Thursday in a by-election of Johnson’s own making after Owen Paterson’s resignation.

Ministers, too, are becoming disenchanted. They are quietly distancing themselves from Johnson and planning for life after him. My abiding memory of the week is the ministers sitting on the front bench at PMQs, staring impassively ahead, unable to bring themselves to nod or cheer in support of Johnson.

The cabinet could assert its authority at this moment of weakness if it wanted to save him.  Ritual calls for a shake-up of Downing Street and new advisers won’t cut it. One Tory MP told me: “Boris Johnson’s biggest adviser is… Boris Johnson. So he is his biggest problem.” And this is a long-standing ally.

Johnson needs to change to survive as PM. But many Tory MPs think he is incapable of mending his ways, even though they are patently inflicting so much damage to him.