Defector unites Tory MPs to help Boris Johnson survive another week

Defections are the hard currency of politics. Alan Howarth in 1995 was the harbinger of the Labour landslide. Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless in 2014 were the vanguard of the Leave vote in the referendum. The eight Labour and three Conservatives who set up Change UK in 2019 (and who mostly ended up in the Liberal Democrats) advertised the realignment of politics in the Brexit election at the end of that year.

Now the tide is flowing from the Conservatives to Labour again, although Christian Wakeford’s defection is more to do with repulsion from Boris Johnson than attraction to Keir Starmer.

It is a huge coup for Starmer, and it seemed to make sense that it should be announced just before Prime Minister’s Questions, in an attempt to destabilise Johnson further. But it had the opposite effect, dividing the Commons on party lines rather than along the fault lines within the governing party.

Johnson was energised, transformed from the penitent masked figure of yesterday’s TV clip. He brushed aside the defection, claiming the Tories had won the seat for “the first time in generations” under his leadership. “We will win again in Bury South.” It was actually a Conservative seat until 1997.

But it was Starmer’s day. Noticeably more relaxed and confident, he had a telling line: “The Labour Party has changed and so has the Conservative Party.” In other words, he now claims to be the party that best represents those northern, working-class Leave seats. He could say it with conviction, with Wakeford in a Union Jack mask sitting right behind him.

Starmer even had some decent jokes: “I know it’s not going well, but look on the bright side: at least the staff at No 10 know how to pack a suitcase.” However unfairly – Johnson wasn’t even in Downing Street on the night of those two parties – the suitcase of booze is the lasting symbol of the prime minister’s failure to follow his own rules.

And yet Johnson looked like a fighter who actually had some support on his own side. Except from David Davis, the former Brexit secretary who was one of Johnson’s great promoters, and who chose today to deliver the corny line from Oliver Cromwell via Leo Amery: “You have sat too long here for any good you have been doing ... In the name of God, go.” Johnson pretended not to recognise it: “I don’t know what he’s talking about.” But later, in a question on the prime minister’s statement on coronavirus restrictions, Sir Edward Leigh, a supportive Tory backbencher, rephrased Amery as: “For God’s sake, keep going.” Johnson gave an answer that might have been counterproductively bullish earlier: “I haven’t sat here quite long enough, or indeed anything like long enough, in my view.”

One of the more significant exchanges in PMQs came in answer to a Labour MP, whom Johnson urged to “wait until next week” before coming to a judgement about whether the rules had been broken by Downing Street work events. That suggests that the report of Sue Gray, the civil servant investigating the parties, won’t be published on Friday, as Johnson had hoped. Presumably the new evidence from Dominic Cummings, the prime minister’s former chief adviser, has added a day or two to the drafting.

Johnson wanted to get the report out of the way this week, even though its publication might act as the trigger for those MPs who are waiting for at least the appearance of due process. Now he has to endure another weekend of speculation. But his performance at PMQs will help him, and his statement on coronavirus restrictions will help him even more.

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Those were heartfelt cheers on the Tory side of the Commons when Johnson announced the reversal of the work-from-home guidance, the end of vaccine passports and the scrapping of compulsory masks. Not that all the Covid-rule rebels sounded pleased. “I hope the prime minister doesn’t blame me for not being extraordinarily grateful that he has withdrawn these measures,” said Mark Harper, chair of the Covid Recovery Group. “I and many others didn’t think they were necessary.”

Indeed, Harper went on to demand more. He wants Johnson to drop the plan to sack unvaccinated staff – the law comes in this April, but Harper says some staff will start to lose their jobs in two weeks’ time. Johnson was deferential, as well he might be to one of the leaders of the 101 Tory MPs who rebelled against the Plan B restrictions before Christmas. “It is very important that we have a voice speaking up for freedom,” Johnson said. He promised to “reflect”, but said he also had to think about relatives of people who catch the virus in hospital. I suspect the law will be scrapped, not least because Sajid Javid, the health secretary, is being advised it is not needed.

Which means that the 101 hold the prime minister’s fate in their hands. Some of them may calculate that they are more likely to get what they want from a weak Johnson than from a strong Rishi Sunak, even if both of them have been on the “freedom” end of the argument in cabinet discussions throughout the pandemic.

With today’s announcement of the early lifting of regulations, Johnson has bought some time with some of them, but maybe only a few days. I doubt if he can hold back the tide after Sue Gray reports. Her report may not be more damning than what we know already, but it will be a moment of decision. And it is hard to see strong enough reasons to keep Johnson in office. Some Tory MPs feel that Sunak isn’t ready for the top job and needs more time; but once they say that, they might as well get on with it and make the change.